MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - Seven down, eight to go. That's the story for New Zealand at the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournament (OQT) in Manila.

For seven quarters, the Tall Blacks have produced some quality basketball, jumping the hosts early in their opening game and then weathering every storm the island nation could whip up.

A heart breaking loss to @BasketballNZ 🇳🇿 eliminates Gilas 🇵🇭 from #FIBAOQT Manila! 😪

📖 https://t.co/jxMGL4AKEshttps://t.co/ZfEJWpjxhM

— FIBA (@FIBA) July 6, 2016

Then for three periods they controlled the contest against FIBA Basketball World Cup third-place team France, reaffirming their status as a basketball David more than capable of matching almost any Goliath.

Unfortunately, the wheels fell off in the eighth quarter, the Tall Blacks quite simply running out of legs as France poured in 28 points after scoring just 38 in the opening 30 minutes.

The Kiwis' offensive rebounding, which had starved Les Bleus of possession, all but disappeared, and their defensive rotations, which had forced tough shots all night, were suddenly giving up open dunks.

Lessons to learn
It was a sad end to what had been a magnificent display of international basketball, but I suspect coach Paul Henare and crew won't be losing too much sleep over it. The reality is fatigue was the biggest contributor, and after a rest day it shouldn't be as big a factor in the Semi-Final.

The other thing New Zealand won't mind is their opponent on Saturday night. Either Canada or Turkey would have been a tough but beatable foe, however I think the Tall Blacks will feel they have an edge over their North American cousins in terms of international experience, discipline and execution.

The Turks don't have the talent of Canada, but as we saw at Spain 2014 they know how to close out tight games - with so much experience at EuroBaskets and World Cups - and there's a high probability both Semi-Finals will come down to the final minutes.

.@CanBball were on ✈️ mode yesterday against Turkey! will we see the same against Senegal on #FIBAOQT Day 2?https://t.co/LOoQG2Yq6d

— FIBA (@FIBA) July 6, 2016

The Canadians feel more comfortable in a faster style of game, something Turkey failed to deal with in their group game, but the Kiwis have the mix of athleticism, discipline and quality game-planning to make this a slow game.

Of course, executing that game plan is easier said than done, especially with Cory Joseph masterminding the offence, but New Zealand were in a similar position at Spain 2014 before and responded magnificently with tough victories over Finland and the Ukraine to progress.

There are a couple of things the Tall Blacks need to learn from Thursday night’s fade-out though, because there is little room left for error.

Stay the course
While the fourth quarter was one to forget, the cracks actually started to appear in the third. Henare's men had wrapped an iron first around the tempo for 25 minutes and had the French searching for answers, but then their discipline started to slip.

A number of quick shots wasted the chance to establish a match-winning lead and loosened the shackles on France. The Tall Blacks can't afford those slip-ups against Canada, they need to be patient and as close to ‘possession perfect’ as possible.

Tom Abercrombie's decision to pull-up for a contested 20-footer in transition, then change his mind mid-air to throw it straight a blue shirt epitomised the fade-out. He also unwisely took two straight offensive rebounds back up in that third term, instead of kicking it out and making France play another set of defence.

In truth though, that is a lesson for Henare. Abercrombie committed just 11 turnovers in his past 9 international games - and barely forced a bad shot - but coughed up three against France and made some uncharacteristic decision-making errors.

He was out on his feet, with potential reserves Leon Henry, Dion Prewster and Reuben Te Rangi all unavailable and the other great wing Kirk Penney retired, Abercrombie has an enormous load to carry. Henare needs to find a way to get his spring-heeled small forward more rest throughout the game.

Check out 📹 this amazing block by @BasketballNZ's @tomabo10 on @ray15parks 👀😱

📖 https://t.co/9RRe5XlGbZhttps://t.co/af30wYPtRL

— FIBA (@FIBA) July 7, 2016

Having said that, I think the second-year Tall Blacks coach has done a very good job with his rotations. With a seven-man rotation, and a couple of other small-minutes contributors, Henare has smartly subbed quickly to ensure his players get lots of small rests to help cover the fact they have to play big minutes.

Play time
Henare has also excelled in the play-calling area. The set he drew up for the final play of the first half against France was pure brilliance, with the play seemingly set up for Corey Webster to take a dribble hand-off, only for Shea Ili to fake the pass, split the unsuspecting defence and then score an uncontested lay-up.

Things would only get better at the end of the third term, the Tall Blacks executing the same play but when defence stuck with Ili he kept his dribble alive and found Webster - who'd rubbed off a screen to the other side of the floor - for a wide-open triple. Magic.

As I said in the opener, there are now eight quarters to go. Four against Canada and, all going to plan, a rematch with France or a grind against Turkey, and Henare will need a few more magic moments on the whiteboard to get through both.

Ultimately, if New Zealand qualify for Rio they will have mastered their tempo control, continued their swarming, proactive help defence and continued to move both players and ball with dizzying speed on offence for the full four quarters.

Just as importantly, their key players - Abercrombie, Mika Vukona, Isaac Fotu and the Webster brothers - will have solidified their position as world-class internationals, and Ili will have stamped his mark as an emerging defensive star of the game .

I can't wait to find out, and to whoever thought of splitting the Olympic qualifiers into tournaments, you are a genius. This has been a fun week of basketball in three different locations.

.@Giannis_An34 goes for the slam! 🏀 🚀 #FIBAOQT #RoadToRio

📺 https://t.co/tKaUJMTIcv https://t.co/vfMOHN3kgk

— FIBA (@FIBA) July 6, 2016

Shining Sapphires
Speaking of fun, how good were the Sapphires? I'm sure I wasn't alone in thinking nothing could top their amazing win over the USA to end the defending champs’ dominance over the FIBA U17 Women's World Championship, along came the Final.

Defence doesn't get any better than what the Aussies produced, holding a talented Italian team to just 38 points in the final was extraordinary, and left no doubt who the best team in the world is.

Congratulations to Ezi Magbegor, Jasmine Simmons and Monique Conti on making the All-Star Five, the entire Sapphires outfit for the pure team basketball they played, and Shannon Seebohm and the coaching staff for how well they prepared this exceptional group of young women.

I look forward to revisiting this win after the Rio Olympics to examine how well the integration of the senior and junior programs is serving Australian basketball.



Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

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