Excitement but no real surprises yet at Cairo U19
REGENSBURG (David Hein's Eye on the Future) - The FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2017 has been pretty exciting but there haven't been any real surprises thus far in Cairo as we reach the Quarter-Finals. One other non-surprise is that all eight quarter-finalists are from Europe or the Americas.
The first FIBA men's youth event on African soil has seen a fair share of thrillers, including a tremendous crowd of 9,000 fans at Cairo Stadium Indoor Halls for Egypt's win over Puerto Rico - possibly a record for a U19 global event.
There was also the tremendous Tai Wynyard 16-point fourth quarter in getting New Zealand's only win against Korea and Japan knocked off Mali in their first U19 tournament since 1999. The Group Phase also was notable in that Lithuania crushed Germany 98-79 thanks to a massive start to the game, which was a re-match of the Semi-Finals at the FIBA U18 European Championship 2016 just over a half-year later.
The most impactful game of the first three days of group play, however, was Spain's victory over Canada in Group C on Day 2. Spain turned the ball over 18 times, had three key bench players foul out and gave up 22 offensive rebounds. Yet Canada could not beat the Europeans - still, as they have never beaten Spain at the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup - as they made just 21 of 36 free throws in a 78-73 loss. That defeat ended up sending Canada to the half of the bracket with U18 European champions France and the two-time reigning FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup champions United States.Fast forward to the Round of 16 and we experienced some big time excitement. Canada used a 16-0 run early in the second half to run away from Angola before Italy needed a last second jumper from Tommaso Oxilia to knock off Japan 57-55.
The top two offenses continue to purr like well-oiled machines with United States and Lithuania beating Mali and Korea by 48 and 47 points, respectively. Spain and France took care of business as expected against Iran and Puerto Rico, respectively. Germany got off to a hot start against New Zealand but it was more about surviving the push in the end to reach the Quarter-Finals for the Germans.
Another good crowd came out for Egypt's Round of 16 encounter with Argentina. But the South Americans are revelling in the fact that they are even in Cairo - Argentina were picked as the replacement for Brazil when FIBA confirmed the extension of the suspension of Brazil's basketball federation. And Argentina took down Egypt to reach the top-eight for the first time since 2011. Argentina picked up eight top-seven finishes in their nine U19 appearances between 1979 and 2011.
Sorry, no time to make it all nice and pretty - my #FIBAU19 top 16, including all the placement games pic.twitter.com/sBpY02liEO
— David Hein (@heinnews) July 5, 2017
Okay, now is time to brag a bit. This is the same Quarter-Finals I picked before the knockout stage started - another reason one could argue there haven't been any surprises yet.
Nothing against the other teams playing in the Classification 9-16, but the Quarter-Finals is time for the big boys to go to battle. And there are three possible thrillers.
Led by Arnoldas Kulboka, Lithuania are playing like they are hooked up to an IV filled with Red Bull while Italy are the slow, deliberate, steady and efficient team that plays tough defense - giving up just 55 points a game without the 98 points conceded to the United States (moving the average to a still respectable 66 points allowed per game). It's a clash of styles which will be fascinating to watch.
Argentina and Spain are both teams no one wants to play because they too are efficient and smart - but they are both more offensively able than Italy. So the Argentina vs Spain Quarter-Final will be a battle.
As will the France vs Canada showdown. The French are a different team than the one that won the FIBA U18 European Championship 2016 title - minus MVP (and new New York Knick) Frank Ntilikina and fellow All-Star Five team member Sekou Doumbouya. But maybe the revelation of the tournament thus far has been the French magician Enzo Goudou Sinha, who leads the tournament in assists. In addition to having the game and name for a first-name nickname - come on, the kid's name is Enzo! - Goudou Sinha plays in a style that reminds observers of French star senior point guard Thomas Heurtel.
Canada meanwhile have been led by the four-headed monster of RJ Barrett, Lindell Wigginton, Abu Kigab and Danilo Djurcic - all averaging more than 12 points a game while combining for 29.3 rebounds, including 10.8 offensive rebounds, 11 assists, 5 steals and 1.8 blocks per game.
Oh, and there is the bit about Canada and the Quarter-Finals. They lost to the United States in the last eight in 2009 and 2013 and then were beaten by Croatia in 2015. France meanwhile finished third on the podium in 2007, the last time they were at the U19 as reigning U18 European champions.
The final of the Quarter-Finals could end up being the least competitive with Germany taking on the United States. The two-time reigning champions United States have a significant size advantage in the blocks and are more athletic and longer than a German team that is solidly long in its own right. But Germany will have to crash the boards and Isaac Bonga and Nelson Weidemann will have to limit the turnovers as Germany's main ball-handlers to have a chance - otherwise we will see more Hamidou Diallo highlights.
Should Germany beat the United States that would be a surprise - something that is lacking in this tournament. The FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2017 has shown the world that Europe and Americas still dominate the game and Asia and Africa as still lacking behind. Sure it would have been great for Japan or Egypt to reach the top eight, but in the end, we have eight of the best basketball countries and cultures in the world ready to give us a great finish.
David Hein
FIBA
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