NEWCASTLE (Paul Nilsen's Women's Basketball Worldwide) - As I have said so many times before, it is impossible to be a women's basketball expert. You can only ever be a specialist.

This is no better evidenced by the fact that the FIBA Women's EuroBasket must be one of the most unpredictable competitions in sporting history - let alone basketball history.

With the recent conclusion of the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2019 Qualifiers, we found out the line-up for next year. And, I have already been asked multiple times. 'Who is going to win next year's title?' The bad news is that I have no clear idea. The good news is that this so beautifully competitive and unpredictable nature of the tournament is set to continue.

Trying to be a bit more clinical about it, I have broken down the field into three categories. These are frontrunners who I see as the main candidates, dark horses who have an outside shot of the silverware (but a good shot at the podium) and then an 'unlikely category' for those teams I think would even themselves describe a title win as a monumental surprise. And remember, this is not about merely doing well. This is a cold and hard prediction of actually winning the prestigious silverware.

So let's focus at this stage on the frontrunners and dark horses - in essence the six nations I think are in with a shout of taking the top podium step. Of course, bearing in mind we are 7-8 months from the tournament and so much can happen with injuries, form and those controversial and ever-changing naturalized options.

Frontrunners

Spain – The holders are the team to beat. I can smell unfinished business from the FIBA Women’s Basketball World Cup in Tenerife when a bronze medal was not in the script. For me, they still set the standard. If you finish above Spain, you will be in the medals. That has become a rule in these recent years. Lucas Mondelo continues to deliver and the spine of their team remains largely unchanged, not withstanding several veteran players nearing retirement. But with the likes of Alba Torrens and Marta Xargay in their prime and Astou Ndour really shining, they will be tough again. The re-introduction of Queralt Casas was a positive this year and the only tricky task is how Mondelo and the Federation plan to blood some new and younger talents into this mix. Several players are knocking on the door.

Belgium – You will all be acutely aware that this Belgium team is my favorite. What they did in Tenerife (and also last year in Prague) was sensational. It was basketball poetry and I look forward to seeing them punch hard again. Importantly they showed at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2018 that they could play for long periods without the legend that is Ann Wauters. The emergence of Lyon's Julie Allemand was sensational and hopefully she can get back on the court and deal with her current injury. I also love Kyara Linskens and there are no words left for Emma Meesseman. A legend in the making. My only concern is that Belgium do rely on Meesseman so heavily that they are at the mercy of fate. If she stays healthy and on the court, anything is possible. Lose her to injury and or foul trouble, they are in trouble. That is why the absence of Hind Ben Abdelkader is so frustrating. She is missing out on an incredible part of her career and Belgium are missing out on more potent firepower. But I guess nothing is ever that straightforward.

France – For me, they are the puzzle that frustrates me beyond belief. They drive me to distraction. I can't say it enough times, all of the criticism and questions I throw towards France, including making L'Equipe newspaper for saying they will always be a Volkswagen and never a Ferrari, is because I believe in them (seriously, I do) and want them to do more. The fifth place finish in Tenerife was the worst possible result, because they can convince themselves and everyone else that they are Top 5 on the planet and everything is fine. Wrong. They were miles (sorry, kilometers) away from the Top 4. Yet for all of this, I adore many of their players, led by Marine Johannes. - probably one of the top 10 most entertaining players I have ever seen. For the fear of boring you all again, it blows my mind to think what they could be capable of if they took the chains off and cut loose offensively. But, I suppose after making so many Finals, their conservative approach will continue and they will hope they can edge across the line and win their first title in a decade. Especially with the addition of Bria Hartley.

Serbia – They’re just good crazy right? Or should that be crazy good? Well in reality, my head tells me that Serbia could be absolutely anything in this competition. With no preparation through the Qualifiers as hosts, with Jelena Milovanovic on maternity leave and a few other things that suggest it might be a stretch to tip them as frontrunners, they still strike me as a team that can do the business. I think they should thrive on the home support and love. They have so many shooters, they will surely just try and outgun everyone who comes at them. That is why I would like them to make a deep run. Not only because hosts doing well is good for any tournament, but because with my recent rants about the death of shooters, they have so many players who can score. They also have many of my favorite players in Sonja Petrovic, Aleksandra Crvendakic and on and on it goes. They also have Marina Maljkovic back at the helm which probably suits them. If nothing else, it will be superbly entertaining watching them try to deliver success.

Dark Horses

Russia – I was so, so disappointed with what happened last year at the Final Round. Since then, Maria Vadeeva has played in the WNBA (which many people told me would simply never happen and I took some 'stick' for this), Raisa Musina has swapped court time for bench time at UMMC (would love to see her loaned out as I want to see her excellent game more) and the rising star duo have both won a FIBA U19 Women's Basketball World Cup title. Olaf Lange was appointed as coach and I still can't work out the merits of that move, on the basis that they won four tight games in their group (which was good) and yet I think Russia should be putting Lithuania and Hungary to more comprehensive defeats (so was it bad?). I am still mystified if the glass is half full or half empty? I do give credit to Coach Lange for giving Anna Leshkovtseva a chance as a late bloomer and she has delivered for sure. So, if Evgeniia Beliakova continues to make clutch shots, they sort out the naturalized position (whether it is Epiphanny Prince or not) they can cause some big problems - even those I have tipped for the Top Four. I think they are better than two years ago (potentially) and that means QF's and beyond.

Italy – We all know that Italy probably could, and should, have appeared at the 2018 FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup after being squeezed out into an agonizing and tearful sixth place finish at the previous Final Round. With playcaller Marco Crespi having picked up the pieces mentally during the Qualifiers and including the additional punch in the nose from Croatia during the opening window, Italy have built some impressive momentum. I am not sure it is something special – but the air is filled with confidence. They have so many young talents coming through right now and while this tournament will be too early for many of them, it is exciting for the future. This is linked to Crespi also driving initiatives around re-invigorating a shooting culture in Italian basketball - other Federations take note. While that priceless veteran know-how of the wonderful Raffaella Masciadri is no more, they have a world star in Cecilia Zandalasini, a classy veteran in Giorgia Sottana, the ever-improving Elisa Penna and interestingly, a real problem-solver in Olbis Futo Andre. The young center's performance in that last game against Sweden showed her potential in a big way. Italy have always looked short under the hoop and she could be such a bonus. It might be a bit much too expect her to be a difference-maker next year, but she could and should be a factor. Yes, exciting times for Crespi and Co. Dark Horses? If they play well, then I think very possibly so.

Unlikely

For Ukraine, Latvia, Montenegro, Slovenia, Hungary, Great Britain, Sweden, Belarus, Turkey and Czech Republic I could see that surprise bronze medal or Semi-Finals spot, but it is hard to look past this kind of accomplishment. But hey, what do I know? I am a specialist and not an expert on the women's game!

So, there you have it. A lot will change in these next 7 months or so and this is something I will re-visit closer to the Final Round and in the meantime, make sure you let me know who you think will win it, via Basketmedia365

Paul Nilsen

FIBA

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