08/12/2017
Paulo Kennedy's view from Downunder
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Rating the ranking

MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - The new FIBA World Ranking system was put into action for the first time this week and it looks good. While I do have one beef, I have to say that's based more on the past than the future.

I'm pretty sure the new approach will only add to the intrigue of the new FIBA Basketball World Cup qualification system, adding additional meaning to the home and away games.

Of course, the most obvious change to the ranking system is the new qualification format, but it is more wide-reaching than that, with what happens in every quarter in every venue a contributing factor.

Not only do wins now matter, but so does the margin of victory, the quality of the opposition and whether they were home or away results.

In a nutshell, there are 1,000 points initially given out for each and every result in official FIBA competitions.

If a team wins by 0-9 points they get 600, by 10-19 that bumps up to 700, and by 20 or more they receive 800. Of course, that means the losers in those three examples would have received 400, 300 and 200 respectively.

Bonus points
If a team wins on the road they get a bonus 70 points, with the losing home team being subtracted the same amount.

There are also bonus points added in accordance with the world ranking of your opponent. For example, playing against the number one ranked USA earns more points than taking on Hong Kong, who sit a lowly 82nd in the world.

The other change of note is what FIBA calls "time decay".

Where in the previous system a performance eight years ago could carry the same weight as one yesterday, the new rankings give more recent games more importance, which makes sense.

While New Zealand's tremendous win over France at the 2010 World Cup is still factored into the rankings, it is no longer given as much credence as their narrow loss to them at the 2016 Olympic Qualifying tournament, which is common sense.

Who's on first?
As for the ranking, it's no surprise to see the USA clear in first, nor Spain a relatively comfortable second.

After that we see Serbia, France, Lithuania and Argentina in a tight bunch (and in that order), with a further gap to a chasing pack of Slovenia, Croatia, Brazil and Australia rounding out the top 10, with Greece standing on the outside looking in.

The Boomers have won 15 of their past 18 games in FIBA competition since 2015, with their only losses to the top three teams in the world. Two of those losses, to the Americans and Spaniards, were very close run things.

I can understand the green and gold army not being too happy with their team sitting 10th in the table, though for me the surprise is more how far back they are from the top six in terms of points.

Undervalued
Probably the group of supporters who have more of a right to be upset are across the Tasman Sea, where the Tall Blacks continue to be undervalued by computers as much as casual fans.

Remarkably, New Zealand are ranked 30th despite being one of only four teams in the world to have made the knockout round of every World Cup this century.

The Kiwis have a 7-10 record in global events during the ranking's eight-year period, including wins over France, Finland, Canada and the Ukraine - who are all ranked ahead of them - and an away win over the Philippines in Manila. It also includes single-figure losses to Lithuania, Turkey, France and Canada.

To put that 7-10 record into perspective, let's have a look at the comparative records in global tournaments of some of the teams ranked above them.

Puerto Rico (14th, 4-10), Mexico (15th, 3-6), Dominican Republic (17th, 4-7), Venezuela (20th, 2-5), Finland (21st, 1-4), Iran (23rd, 2-10), China (24th, 1-15).

It’s pretty clear from this list that New Zealand belong somewhere in the teens, which is where their ranking sat for many years until recently.

Explanation time
So how do we explain the Tall Blacks being so far below where their performances suggest they should be? And why are the Boomers a little below where their results should place them?

I believe it comes down to the fact opponents' ranking is being factored into the new system, but of course the only way to judge that is through the old system. That's where the problem lays.

The winner of the old FIBA Oceania Championship used to be awarded approximately the same number of ranking points as the team that finished 14th in the FIBA EuroBasket.

Of course, if you look at the following Olympics and World Cups during the current ranking period, the top Oceania team has on average finished behind just four or five European teams.

The huge additional weighting which teams from Europe and the Americas - and Asia to a lesser degree - have received over a long period of time has impacted the rankings of the two teams from Downunder in the new system.

On the climb
The good news is, as time goes by, that influence will slowly disappear. As I said at the start, my beef is actually with what had happened in the past, not the new way of doing things.

Overall, having games in each window impacting the ranking each month - including winning margins and away wins - is a far superior system to what has come before it.

The Tall Blacks have their work cut out getting back to the top 16, but they have a great chance to start the climb with two road games in February, including against the more highly-ranked Chinese.

As for the Boomers, well they are on a roll, their NBL squad is dominating Asia and the NBA talent to come back in later in the year and for China 2019 is experienced and talented.

It's a pretty safe bet they won't be sitting at number 10 in two years' time.

Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo has joined our team of columnists with a weekly column called 'The View from Downunder', where he looks at pertinent issues in the world of basketball from an Oceania perspective, perhaps different to the predominant points of view from columnists in North America and Europe.