Fan Philippines
01/06/2018
Paulo Kennedy's view from Downunder
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Are Gilas, NZ or Iran next in line?

MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy’s View from Downunder) - They haven’t been long in the Kingdom of Asia, but it’s fair to say the Australian Boomers are currently sitting pretty comfortably upon its throne.

Andrej Lemanis' men are 10-0 in Asian competition, with an average winning margin of 27 points and a smallest victory of 16. Only two opponents have been within single figures at half-time and none at three-quarter-time.

With the announcement Matty Dellavedova will be in Boomers uniform for the upcoming June-July FIBA Basketball World Cup qualifying window, joined by fellow Milwaukee Buck Thon Maker in his national team debut, that streak looks like extending to 12.

But as those who watch the TV series Game of Thrones tell me, things can change very quickly for those in positions of power, and a coup d’état is rarely far away. The question is, of course, who has the arsenal to penetrate the walls of Castle Australia?

A scan along the FIBA World Ranking Men, Presented by NIKE, finds Australia nestled at number 10, with Iran the next Asian team in line at 24 after their long run of impressive performances at the FIBA Asia Cup.

It's a remarkable record of three gold, one silver and a bronze at the past six continental championships, with a stunning 45-5 record over that period.

Had Oceania not experienced continental creep into Asia before the last edition, there is little doubt Hamed Haddadi and Co would have claimed title number four.

But can the Iranians still lay claim to be next in line? So far they are 3-1 in World Cup Qualifiers, stunned by neighbours Iraq in the opening game, 74-66.

They have bounced back strongly with three straight wins, but worryingly in terms of what comes next, their two leading scorers are still the impressive but ageing duo of Haddadi and Samad Nikkah Bahrami.

While those two have long made their mark on the international scene, the Iranian team led by their group of veterans has repeatedly fallen short at global tournaments, and were well beaten by Australia in the Final of last year's Asia Cup.

The likes of Sajjad Mashayekhi, Mohammad Jamshidi, Arsalan Kazemi and Vahid Dalirzahan still give them a competitive core in coming years, there doesn’t appear to be the depth of talent behind them to challenge the biggest guns.

What about New Zealand? That's a country that loves nothing more than knocking the Aussies off their perch in any pursuit possible.

When it comes to the future, things have never looked brighter for the Tall Blacks. Steve Adams is just 24 and has stated he intends on representing his country, and you just know he'll do it with intensity, giving a quality pairing with scoring sensation Corey Webster.


Tai Webster, Shea Ili, Rob Loe and Isaac Fotu have shown they can be genuine international contributors against quality opposition, and they are 23, 25, 26 and 24 respectively.

Corey Webster is a scoring sensation.

Reuben Te Rangi, Finn Delany and Tai Wynyard offer another wave coming through, aged 23, 22 and 20 and all possessing the athleticism that is becoming the true hallmark of New Zealand basketball.

But can the Kiwis really lay claim to being potential giant beaters? Their wins over China and Korea on the road in February were inspiring, and home wins over the Chinese and Hong Kong in a month's time would all but secure passage to next year's FIBA Basketball World Cup.

However, the reality is they haven't beaten Australia since 2009 and, while they have gotten mighty close to the Boomers, France, Lithuania, Canada and Turkey in recent years, their last big scalp was the French at the World Cup eight years ago.


It's generally a case of so close but yet so far for the Tall Blacks. However, any team that can boast the Webster brothers and Ili in the backcourt, beside Adams, Fotu, Loe, Alex Pledger and potentially Wynyard up front, has the tools to beat quality opposition.

Add to that the veteran presence of Mika Vukona and Tom Abercrombie, and the New Zealanders should be legitimately aiming for high things at China 2019. But higher than the Aussies? History suggests that might be out of this overachieving country's reach.

You could put China into the discussion for next in line - they are a perennial power at continental level - but can they get the job done against the big boys?

The only non-Asian team China have beaten since Yao Ming's retirement after the 2008 Beijing Olympics was Cote d'Ivoire at the World Cup two years later. Since that moment, they’ve lost 14 straight World Cup and Olympic match-ups, 11 of them by double figures.


While they have a new generation led by Guo Ailun and Zhou Qi - and will have ravenous home crowds next year urging them onto great things - the Chinese need to put some runs on the board before they're considered next in line.

So that leaves us with the Gilas of the Philippines. This is perhaps the tastiest prospect because on July 2 at the 55,000-capacity Philippine Arena, they will host the Australians to find out exactly where they sit.

Sure, not all of the Boomers studs will be there but they will take in the unbeaten core that has shut down opponent after opponent with their relentless D over the past nine months, bolstered by the desperation of Dellavedova and the finishing of Maker.

If the Philippines believe they can reach great heights, this is the moment to stand tall. They will take heart from their respectable loss to the Aussies in Melbourne in February, when without Jayson Castro they were within single figures late in the third term,

But respectable losses won't mean anything in July if they can't get the job done against this Australian team at home, in front of of the world's most basketball-mad population.


Playing on home soil has provided an incredible atmosphere for the Gilas, even though in recent years they have lost there to Iran in the Final of the 2013 Asia Cup, and by nine points to both France and New Zealand at the 2016 Olympic Qualifying Tournament.

There is nothing shameful about those losses, but if the Philippines truly want to sit atop Asia, they need to be able to win blockbusters at home, and that starts with the unbeaten Aussies in four weeks’ time.

Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo has joined our team of columnists with a weekly column called 'The View from Downunder', where he looks at pertinent issues in the world of basketball from an Oceania perspective, perhaps different to the predominant points of view from columnists in North America and Europe.