GUADALAJARA (Mexico) – Canada and New Zealand will face off in the first Semi-final of the FIBA Women's Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournament 2026 with a clear objective: take another step toward the only spot available at the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournaments 2028. Canada enters the Semi-finals as the undefeated Group B leader, with three wins over Senegal, the Philippines and Mexico. New Zealand finished second in Group A with a 2-1 record after defeating Argentina and South Sudan and falling to Brazil.
Key matchup
Syla Swords vs. Emilia Shearer
The two forwards have been the main offensive leaders for their respective teams during the Group Phase. Swords led Canada with 15.0 points per game, while also adding 4.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists and 1.3 steals. She also posted the best plus-minus on the team at 16.7, highlighting her impact on both ends of the floor.
On the other side will be Shearer, the tournament’s third-leading scorer at 19.0 points per game and New Zealand’s most efficient player, with an efficiency rating of 15.7. The forward is coming off a great performance against South Sudan, when she scored 32 points, including 17 in the fourth quarter to lead New Zealand’s comeback. The battle between the two could go a long way toward determining the outcome of the Semi-final.
X-Factors
Canada has found a main offensive weapon in Swords, but will need more production to get past New Zealand. Jasmine Bascoe, who is making her senior national team debut, has been the only other Canadian averaging more than 10 points, with 12.0 per game. Meanwhile, Kayla Alexander and Yvonne Ejim have done an excellent job around the rim, averaging 5.0 rebounds and 1.0 block per game for Alexander and 9.3 rebounds for Ejim. Delaney Gibb (5.3 points) and Sami Hill (3.7 points) could play an important role if Canada needs additional scoring from the perimeter.
New Zealand also has a strong presence in the paint in Lauren Whittaker, who is averaging 13.0 points and 10.3 rebounds. However, she will face a tough battle against Alexander and Ejim, making the contributions of other players crucial. Ella Tofaeono is averaging 6.3 points and 6.3 rebounds, while Ella Jade Brow adds 8.3 points, 4.7 rebounds and 4.7 assists. If they can increase their production, New Zealand will have more weapons to stay competitive until the final buzzer.
Stats don’t lie
Canada has been the most productive offensive team during the Group Phase, averaging 75.7 points per game, and also holds a significant advantage in bench production. The Canadian bench is averaging 30.0 points, nearly twice the 17.3 points produced by New Zealand’s reserves. The Oceanians, meanwhile, are averaging 64.0 points per game, the fifth-best mark in the tournament. Against a Canadian team that has shown it can produce from different parts of thier roster, New Zealand will need to keep the game under control and find answers to prevent Canada’s depth from ultimately making the difference.
Past matchups
There are no recent meetings between Canada and New Zealand that provide an immediate head-to-head reference between the two teams. The Semi-final will offer a new opportunity to measure two teams that have taken different paths throughout this tournament.
They said
“We have a young group, and these girls are doing a really good job of executing what we’re asking them to do. This can be an intimidating environment for players who haven’t been with the senior team before. This experience will be really important for their growth. I’m proud of how they have blended in with the veterans.” - Nell Fortner, Canada head coach “Canada is rolling, they’re pretty tough. This is just a process for us, we’re trying to make the most of the days. We want to do what we do against Canada, but we’re also looking beyond that, we’re looking to build for the next two years.” - Natalie Hurst, New Zealand head coach
FIBA