GUADALAJARA (Mexico) – Canada and Mexico will face off this Sunday, August 23, for the title at the FIBA Women's Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournament 2026 and, more importantly, for the only available spot at the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournaments 2028. Canada enter undefeated at 4-0 after beating New Zealand 86-71 in the Semi-finals, while the hosts defeated Brazil 83-64 to reach the Final. Canada already know what it takes to beat Mexico in Guadalajara, having prevailed 70-64 in the final game of the Group Phase. However, that game was anything but easy for Nell Fortner's team. With both a title and a spot in the next stage of the Olympic pathway on the line, Mexico will look to build on the momentum of eliminating Brazil. They will also have the support of their home crowd to pull off an upset against one of the highest-ranked teams in women's basketball worldwide.
Key matchup
Syla Swords vs. Anisa Jeffries
Swords has been Canada's leading offensive force throughout the tournament and showed it once again in the Semi-finals, scoring 17 points against New Zealand, including a perfect 5-of-5 from three-point range. The forward enters the Final averaging 15.5 points, 3.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.0 steal, while shooting an excellent 44.4 percent from long range and posting an efficiency rating of 13.0.
Jeffries is Mexico's most versatile player and is coming off an outstanding performance against Brazil. The power forward led the hosts with 24 points, 6 rebounds, 3 steals and 2 blocks. She is averaging 15.0 points in the tournament and leads her team in efficiency at 17.3, while also contributing 6.5 rebounds, 1.5 steals and 1.0 block per game. Although they play different positions and are unlikely to match up directly, the production of Swords and Jeffries could go a long way toward determining the outcome of the Final.
X-Factors
Kayla Alexander's presence could be one of Canada's most important weapons. The center is averaging 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds, but has played just 19.2 minutes per game due to her team's dominance. That limited workload could allow her to enter the decisive game fresh. If Alexander can make an impact around the basket, Mexico will have to adjust defensively, and Mariana Valenzuela could be forced to devote more attention to the defensive end. Valenzuela, however, also has the tools to create problems for the Canadian big. The Mexican center is averaging 11.8 points and 9.5 rebounds per game, and her ability to shoot from the perimeter could force Alexander away from the paint, opening up space for her teammates. Off the bench, Delaney Gibb and Destiny Pitts could also prove decisive. The Canadian is averaging 8.3 points and is coming off a 17-point performance in the Semi-finals, while the Mexican contributes 12.8 points and is one of her team's main sources of offensive energy.
Stats don’t lie
Canada and Mexico enter the Final as the two highest-scoring offenses in the tournament, although Canada holds a significant advantage. The Canadians are averaging 78.3 points per game, compared to 71.8 for the hosts. That gap helps explain the dominance Canada has displayed throughout the tournament. Canada also holds the edge in several other categories: 47.0 to 40.5 rebounds, 33.5 to 25.5 points in the paint, and 32.5 to 25.0 bench points per game. Mexico will need to close those gaps and prevent Canada's depth from ultimately tilting the game in their favor. With little room for error in a Final, every possession will carry extra weight.
Past matchups
History clearly favors Canada, which holds a 9-1 advantage in the head-to-head series, including their win earlier in this competition. Before that game, the two teams had met at the FIBA Women's AmeriCup 2023, also with Canada coming out on top (83-57). Mexico's only win in the series dates back to the 1975 Women's World Cup.
They said
“We’ve worked hard for this moment. I’ve always thought that simply putting on the Canadian jersey is exciting, but having the opportunity to do it in a championship game is amazing. We’re ready to do whatever it takes to bring home the title.” - Delaney Gibb, Canada shooting guard “It’s going to be a very tough game against Canada. We think the most important thing for us will be to limit our mistakes. We have to fight throughout the entire game because they are a top team in the world, but we’ve already shown that we can compete with them.” - Mariana Valenzuela, Mexico center
FIBA