GUADALAJARA (Mexico) – Brazil and Mexico will face off in the second Semi-final of the FIBA Women's Olympic Pre-Qualifying Tournament 2026 with their sight set on a win that would bring them closer to securing a spot in the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournaments 2028. Brazil finished first in Group A with a 2-1 record, while Mexico placed second in Group B with the same record. The South Americans opened the tournament with an unexpected overtime loss to South Sudan, but bounced back with wins over New Zealand and Argentina. Mexico, meanwhile, had to rally against the Philippines before defeating Senegal and then falling by a narrow margin to Canada. Now, the hosts will look to take advantage of playing at home to end a long losing streak against Brazil.
Key matchup
Bella Nascimento vs. Destiny Pitts
Nascimento was Brazil's leading scorer in the previous stage, averaging 16.3 points per game. The shooting guard is also coming off an outstanding performance against Argentina, when she scored 23 points, and is averaging 3.7 rebounds and 1.7 assists. She also leads Brazil in efficiency rating at 11.3.
Pitts has played an important role for Mexico coming off the bench and is one of three players on the team averaging 12.0 points, alongside Mariana Valenzuela and Anisa Jeffries. Her profile is similar to Nascimento's, particularly in her ability to punish opponents from long range. Whichever player finds their shooting rhythm first could give her team a significant advantage.
X-Factors
Brazil has another key contributor in Aaliyah Guyton, who is averaging 15.7 points and 4.3 assists. However, the team will need more production from the interior players (Leticia Rodrigues, Letycia Vasconcelos or Heloisa Carrera) to deal with the challenge posed by Valenzuela. In addition to her 12.0 points, the center is averaging 8.3 rebounds and can do damage both around the basket and from the perimeter.
Mexico also has another player capable of influencing the game in several areas: Anisa Jeffries. The forward not only averages 12.0 points per game, but also grabs 6.7 rebounds and can become a key factor on the boards. If Valenzuela and Jeffries can make the most of their versatility, Mexico will have the tools to trouble a Brazilian defense that will need to find answers.
Stats don’t lie
The battle in the paint could be one of the factors that determines the outcome of the Semi-final. Mexico has been more effective than Brazil in second-chance points, averaging 10.3 per game compared to 4.7, and also holds an advantage in points in the paint, 24.0 to 18.7. Brazil, however, has a slight edge in rebounding, averaging 43.3 per game compared to Mexico's 41.0. Depth also favors the hosts. Mexico has scored 25.7 points per game from the bench, well above Brazil's 14.7. That difference is also reflected in overall scoring: Mexico is averaging 68.0 points per game, while Brazil is scoring 58.3. In a game that could be decided by small details, bench production could carry enormous weight.
Past matchups
Brazil has dominated the recent history between the two teams, winning all eight of their previous meetings. The most recent matchup came in the Quarter-Finals of the FIBA Women's AmeriCup 2025, when Brazil won 84-61 behind standout performances from Kamilla Cardoso and Damiris Dantas. This time, however, the circumstances are different. Cardoso and Dantas are not part of Brazil's roster in Guadalajara, while Mexico enters with the confidence gained from thier performance in the tournament and the support of their home crowd. History favors Brazil, but the present allows the hosts to change the script.
They said
“The Semi-finals are going to be very evenly matched. I hope the game serves as motivation for us to be more consistent in the way we play. We are looking to play with intensity and maintain it through team basketball and strong defense.” - Leonardo Figueiro, Brazil head coach “Against Brazil, we need to come out very focused on defense. If we maintain the discipline we have shown in the previous games, I think we can get off to a good start and build from there offensively.” - Christian Pardo, Mexico head coach
FIBA