BRNO (Czechia) - USA head into the FIBA U19 Women's Basketball World Cup 2025 Semi-Final as big favorites and especially having just posted the longest winning streak in the history of the competition.
With 26 straight wins and a 13th consecutive Semi-Final to look forward to, it looks on paper that the holders are on a seemingly unstoppable march back to the top step of the podium.
Step forward Spain who almost surprised the champs on home soil two years ago in Madrid - coming close to taking the silverware. Now they have an opportunity to make themselves heroes by going for the upset as they step into an impressive 8th Semi-Final.
Key matchup
Sienna Betts vs Ines Sotelo
Sienna Betts is going to take some stopping because of both her incredible size and quality. One of USA's best players in the competition, she has played superbly so far and could be ready to post another high-class showing.
Interestingly, Spain come into this one having just closely shackled Portugal's star center Clara Silva. One player who may Betts is Ines Sotelo. Although there are other options such as Maria Anais Rodriguez. If Spain do a good job in this defensive assignment, it would go a long way to hanging with the holders and staying in contention.
X-factors
It's all about the defense. If Spain can disrupt as much as possible with ball pressure and also do a great job on the defensive glass (to limit second chance opportunities), this might ensure USA struggle to find any offensive rhythm. With this, their outlook for attaining an epic upset will rise considerably.
Spain also need to stand tough in the paint because the near 60% for their opponents from 2-point range in this tournament means USA simply won't lose if they're able to maintain that stellar shooting percentage.
Stats don't lie
You can pick just about any statistical category available and you will see that USA are hugely dominant. They are the leading scorers in the competition with 103.8 points per game, (compared to 65.5 for Spain) have the most assists per game and the best field goal percentage.
The one stat that might just cheer up Spain is that France restricted them to just 70 points in the Quarter-Finals and with a similar number again, the upset will remain a possibility.
Past matchups
Both nations clashed in the 2023 Final - one of the best in history and all played out in front of a spectacular 7,000 fans in the Spanish capital. USA had to work hard to defend their crown, eventually riding out 69-66 winners - despite the best efforts of TISSOT MVP Martin Carrion.
The last time Spain beat USA (one of only two wins in any global FIBA youth competition) was in the first phase of the 2009 edition in a 90-86 success.
Who will win?
FIBA