MUNICH (Germany) - The FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers Second Round has seen the 24 teams play their first two games, getting us two steps closer to finding out who gets the 12 tickets to Qatar.
The Second Round started in August, and will follow with another couple of windows in November 2026 and February/March 2027.
We will be monitoring each country's progress in our Power Rankings before and after each window.
#1 Türkiye (=)
Record: 8-0 Schedule in November: @ Italy, vs. Iceland
Yep, we told you they are #1 for a reason. Reason being, they are the first team to qualify for the World Cup! WITH FOUR GAMES IN HAND!
They were extremely dominant in this window, taking down Lithuania and Iceland by a combined 65 points, sending a message they can get the job done even when they don't have a certain somebody named Alperen Sengun in the lineup.
This also sounds like a good time to remind you that their best result in World Cup history was the second place in 2010. Best result yet, we should say.
#2 France (=)
Record: 7-1 Schedule in November: @ Estonia, vs. Sweden
Was it as easy as +25 against Slovenia and +15 at Sweden suggest? Well, not really. Okay, the arena for the first game was obviously in a rue à sens unique1, but that road game against Sweden was anything but easy.
Sweden were up 65-64 with five to play, before Victor Wembanyama and his guys decided it was time to end the fun for nearly 15,000 fans in the stands.
Three games clear of fourth place with four games left to play, yeah - we're gonna brief the designers to be ready with the FRANCE QUALIFIED graphics.
1one-way street in French.
#3 Germany (+2)
Record: 7-1 Schedule in November: @ Latvia, vs. Poland
The fact that we even considered pushing them to #2 speaks volumes. Germany showed why they are the reigning champions of the world, flying over to Poland and handing the white-and-red nation their first defeat in these Qualifiers.
Few things to note about the win: Isaac Bonga is still that guy on defense, 5 steals; Maodo Lo is still that guy off the bench, 13 points, 5 rebounds, 4 assists, +12 with him on the floor in a two-point win; Johannes Thiemann is still that guy down low, 14 points and 12 rebounds in 26 minutes of work; and Dennis Schroder is still THAT guy, THE guy, looking to go back-to-back as World Cup MVP in 2027.
Germany is that team, yep.
#4 Serbia (-1)
Record: 6-2 Schedule in November: @ Lithuania, vs. Italy
Wow, won both games and lost a spot, huh?
The truth is, it was more about rewarding a 7-1 Germany side than about trying to take anything away from Serbia. These guys are two big steps ahead of Lithuania in their group, which is why their first game back in November will be gigantic.
A win on the road at Lithuania could be the decider to send them packing for Qatar already in 2026. They can do it, as long as they've got enough Nikolas on the roster.
#5 Croatia (+1)
Record: 7-1 Schedule in November: @ Poland, vs. Netherlands
You love seeing big lineups? Great, here's your new favorite team, as coach Tomica Mijatovic found a way out of a 14-point hole in the Netherlands by putting Mario Hezonja at point guard, Toni Nakic and Luka Bozic next to him at "two" and "three," and pairing up Karlo Matkovic and Ivica Zubac down low.
You'd think they would struggle with spacing and offense, and you would be wrong because they scored 101 points, becoming the first team to get 100+ points in four straight games in World Cup Qualifiers history, across all regions!
Three games ahead of Latvia with four games left to play... Croatia are so, so, so close to making it back to the World Cup for the first time since 2014.
#6 Poland (-2)
Record: 7-1 Schedule in November: vs. Croatia, @ Germany
First defeat in eight games, and you immediately get bumped two spots in the Power Rankings, that's just cruel. Also, it's just showing how insanely good some of the other teams have been so far in the Qualifiers, two of them coming from Poland's Group K.
Which two? That's right, the next two that they will be facing in November! Mateusz Ponitka (23.0 EFF) can't wait for those games, he's got a chance to overtake Mario Hezonja (23.3 EFF) as the most efficient player of the Qualifiers.
#7 Ukraine (+3)
Record: 6-2 Schedule in November: @ Portugal, vs. Montenegro
Okay now, Ukraine had the second biggest upset of the window, as Greece were 25 spots ahead of them in the FIBA World Ranking Men, presented by NIKE.
But you know how they say in tennis, a break point is worth nothing if you can't hold your serve. So they Elina Svitolina'd it, taking down Montenegro to go 2-0 in this window, 6-2 overall, and this +3 is a continuation of their +2 from the last time we spoke, meaning we actually got it right with hyping up Ukraine.
Days like these don't happen very often at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2027 European Qualifiers Second Round Power Rankings headquarters. Thank you, Ukraine, for making us look good!
#8 Spain (-1)
Record: 5-3 Schedule in November: @ Montenegro, vs. Greece
Let's not talk about this window, okay? Okay. There was a chance to go 2-0, meaning 7-1, as they lost both games in the clutch, but instead the images appearing in their rear view mirror are getting bigger, as they are now just one game above the line.
The OT defeat to Greece is something to keep in mind as they meet again in November. A win would be fine, but a three-point win would basically mean they cannot be caught by the Greeks anymore.
#9 Italy (-1)
Record: 5-3 Schedule in November: vs. Türkiye, @ Serbia
We always knew that Italy would struggle against tall teams, and having them go back-to-back against Jusuf Nurkic and Nikola Jokic was just unfair.
It won't get any easier in November, either, just look at that schedule... But at least we found out that the reason Simone Fontecchio is in Miami was because of his performances with the national team, and as long as he's a part of the Heat Culture, he'll be there for Italy when possible.
#10 Finland (-1)
Record: 5-3 Schedule in November: @ Slovenia, vs. Estonia
So there's good news and bad news, okay? Bad news, they lost a game at home against Sweden, and that means they wasted a wonderful opportunity to put more daylight between themselves and that horizontal line in the standings.
Good news is they reacted. They bounced back, big time, with Lauri Markkanen showing plenty of emotion, picking up a technical - we're not really sure we ever saw him get a tech in FIBA events, ever - and most importantly leading his team with another double-double, collected even before the start of the final stanza in Estonia.
That trip to Slovenia will be massive in November.
#11 Georgia (+5)
Record: 5-3 Schedule in November: @ Greece, vs. Portugal
Yes, it says +5; yes, it says #11; yes, this means nobody should be surprised if Georgia make the cut and reach the World Cup again.
While you're used to Tornike Shengelia scoring a thousand points and grabbing five hundred rebounds, the reality is that coach Aleksandar Dzikic made them much more than just a one-man band.
Against Montenegro, Goga Bitadze also scored 20+, alongside Toko. Against Portugal, the list expanded to Rati Andronikashvili and Sandro Mamukelashvili, meaning Georgia got five 20+ point performances in these two games.
Plus, Marcquise Reed not forcing the scoring issue, getting 25 in two games combined, but with 14 assists. Team-first mentality working wonders for Georgia!
#12 Greece (-1)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Georgia, @ Spain
No wonder the original drama was created in Greece. This is all they needed, a clutch close win over a big team, just like that their confidence is back up and they are just a game behind Spain and Georgia.
But this is Greece, even after they were regulars in our Biggest Upsets articles - not in a good way - their fans stayed loyal, 17,677 of them coming to provide that extra spark from the stands.
Who knows, without them, maybe Greece don't find that big shot, that one stop, that key play to defeat Spain. This game should pop up when people ask ChatGPT "are home fans really that important in sports?"
#13 Lithuania (-1)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Serbia, @ BIH
One win out of two, but the schedule is troubling for a team that's still under the horizontal line in their group. There could be something if they beat Serbia, but there could also be a whole lot of nothing if they lose to Bosnia and Herzegovina.
If it happens, we'll have to remind you that the last time Lithuania failed to reach the World Cup was in 2002. Let's not go there yet, please.
#14 Portugal (=)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Ukraine, @ Georgia
Remember when we said Ukraine had the second biggest upset of the window? It's because of Portugal.
Get this, there were 39 countries between Portugal and Spain in the FIBA World Ranking Men, presented by NIKE! Thirty-nine!!! The growth of Portugal is amazing, they had two blowout defeats to Spain in their history, and went on to shock the world in Zaragoza.
The only reason why they aren't moving up in the Power Rankings is because they didn't hold their serve after earning that break. Still, if they went 1-1 in every window, they would be up at 6-6, which could be just enough to send them to the World Cup.
They've never been there, you know. Yet.
#15 Slovenia (+5)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Finland, @ Hungary
FIVE spots up! Crazy to think we've rewarded them that much after they were trailing by 30+ points in this window, but it's okay, it was against France in France, not a lot of teams can get to single digits there, let alone win the game.
The reason they jumped up is because of how big their win over Hungary could be. It propelled them to third spot, and the fact they won by 15 is also huge, because it means they'll make Hungary chase the margin in the reverse fixture in November.
Sneak a win in over Markkanen-less Finland, and we could see Slovenia back at the World Cup once again. See? Not all wins are equal when it comes to the Power Rankings. Slovenia's one was more than enough to go +5.
#16 Sweden (+2)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Hungary, @ France
At a certain point of their game with France, it looked like we were going to have to make room for Sweden in the Top 10. Because they took down Markkanen and Finland on the road, and were up on Wemby and France in front of nearly 15,000 fans in Stockholm.
However, Wemby did his thing, France prevailed, Sweden moved upwards here, by two spots only. They've got the matchup with Hungary circled in their calendar, November could be make-or-break material for the Swedes.
#17 Hungary (+2)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: @ Sweden, vs. Slovenia
The way we told you about Hungary while talking about Sweden and Slovenia can be observed in two ways, since (1) it seems like only one of the three could reach the World Cup, and (2) it means Hungary will have two match points in November.
Imagine them going 2-0 there. It would put them in pole position, or at least in whatever position Liam Lawson is nowadays, as "the best of the rest," because if you can't catch all the Mercedes, Ferrari, McLaren, Red Bull machines, you can at least make sure you're better than the rest of the pack.
So they need to Liam-Lawson their way through the crowded middle of the standings.
They love F1 in Hungary, they'll get the reference, for sure.
#18 Latvia (+3)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Germany, @ Israel
In another life, Latvia would be in a fairly nice position ahead of the four remaining games, with a 4-4 record. But in this life, they are stuck in the same group as not one, not two, but THREE teams up at 7-1 so far.
The math is simple, unless Latvia go 4-0 the rest of the way, they won't see Qatar.
#19 Montenegro (-6)
Record: 4-4 Schedule in November: vs. Spain, @ Ukraine
Nope, just wasn't to be for Montenegro this time around. Two straight defeats, -27 blowout in Georgia followed by a nine-point loss at home to Ukraine. They entered this window dreaming of climbing to 6-2, but that dream turned into a nightmare at 4-4.
They need to bail themselves out now, but they've got the top two teams of the group up next. That "monte" could be too high to climb.
#20 Bosnia and Herzegovina (+3)
Record: 3-5 Schedule in November: @ Iceland, vs. Lithuania
We shouldn't have any favorites when it comes to fandom, but man, those BIH home games hit different. From Dzanan Musa's past heroics, through the TV cameras shaking, players soaking wet from the heat, all the way to Jusuf Nurkic joining the fans in the stands to sing "I love you" to his homeland, basketball over there is something else, brate.
Two things need to happen in November, though. BIH need a big road win, and Iceland is one of the toughest places to search for it. Then, we all get to see that atmosphere at home again, as they play host to Lithuania, chasing a win, potentially by 6+ points to get the tiebreaker, too.
It could happen. Why not.
#21 Iceland (-4)
Record: 3-5 Schedule in November: vs. BIH, @ Türkiye
Yeah, playing Serbia and Türkiye back-to-back was a cruel joke. Not a lot to say about those two defeats by a combined score of 212-144, but the fact we wrote it like this is actually saying a lot.
Full focus now on the upcoming home game against BIH. In fact, full focus on the remaining four games, because Iceland know, if they don't go 4-0, they aren't feeling the Qatari heat this time next year.
#22 Estonia (-1)
Record: 3-5 Schedule in November: vs. France, @ Finland
While they aren't exactly out of the running, we put Estonia as the worst ranked 3-5 team here for one very obvious reason. Okay, two obvious reasons, since they have to play both France and Finland in November.
Oh well, sounds like plenty of motivation to prove us wrong, win a pair of games and get right back into the Qatar 2027 talks and calculations! Oh, and two wins could be extremely big, if they happen, since Slovenia, Hungary and Sweden are all playing each other in November, meaning they can't all go 2-0 and break away from Estonia.
But yes, long story short, you need to start winning games asap.
#23 Netherlands (+1)
Record: 2-6 Schedule in November: vs. Israel, @ Croatia
Even though Oranje are one of the first two teams to have officially been eliminated from the World Cup hunt, the way they performed against Croatia deserves a nod. A nod being a one-spot promotion in the Power Rankings.
Nobody actually destroyed the Netherlands, they were hanging around late in every single game, but "hanging around late" is not actually worth any points in the standings, so they have to settle for #23 here.
In any other group, they would've still been alive with four games to play. They just had bad luck of running into Germany, Croatia and Poland.
#24 Israel (-1)
Record: 2-6 Schedule in November: @ Netherlands, vs. Latvia
While the Netherlands hung around late against Germany and Croatia, Israel were powerless in August. Even if they win their remaining four games, they still would not be able to climb the standings above the line, meaning they'll have to wait for at least another four years to end one of the longest droughts.
The last time they played the World Cup was in 1986. Maybe it ends in France in 2031? Sure, maybe it does end in France in 2031, indeed.
Note: The Power Rankings are entirely subjective and in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author.