ABIDJAN (Cote d'Ivoire) - Describing this race for the 2027 Qatar World Cup as unpredictable is an understatement, given the competitiveness witnessed in the first 24 games, which were played in November and February, respectively.
Now that the competition has reached one of its defining moments, FIBA.basketball dissects where each team ranks ahead of the third window of the World Cup African Qualifiers, scheduled for July 2-5 in Dakar, Douala, and Luanda.
See below for our conclusions:
#16 - Uganda (-)
The Silverbacks of Uganda face an uphill battle in fighting back from their 0-3 win-loss record, especially with the uncertain availability of some of the players who made them one of the rising programs in the East African region in recent times.
A thorough look at Group D's archives shows that Uganda has lost to Angola and Mali four times each and to Egypt seven times.
It will take a Herculean effort for the Ugandans to turn their fortunes around in a group that includes three real contenders for the five World Cup tickets available to African countries.
#15 - Madagascar (-)
While it's not impossible for Madagascar to win games in Group B and recover from their 0-3 start, overcoming their point differential of -66 could prove challenging.
Madagascar appointed Frenchman Mickael Pivaud as their new head coach, replacing John Douaglin.
They are heading to Dakar with the same core group of players who put up a good fight in the first three games but ultimately lost to the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Côte d'Ivoire, and Senegal.
#14 - Libya (-)
The team that caused the most excitement during the 2025 AfroBasket Qualifiers has lost six games in a row since February 2025: three at the AfroBasket and three in the opening games of Group B of the World Cup Qualifiers.
Sam Vincent replaced Fouad Abou Chacra, the 2025 BAL Coach of the Year who led Libya to victory in the AfroBasket qualifiers. Vincent came with the hope of propelling Libya to new heights, but he left without a single win, having been replaced by Egyptian Ahmed Marei.
The unanswered question is what exactly isn't working for Libya. They are the only team in Group A without a win and are facing a -41 point differential. A lack of talent is certainly not the answer.
#13 - Rwanda (-)
Rwandans will never forget the unnecessary foul by Prince Muhizi on Morris Udeze with four seconds left in regulation, which allowed Nigeria to tie the game at 61-61 and send it to overtime.
Rwanda eventually lost 75-69 in the additional five minutes. This could have been their first-ever win over Nigeria and their first win of the current campaign.
They left Tunisia empty-handed after three games.
It's time for Rwanda to bounce back! Can they claim a win or two in the second round of Group C? Only time will tell.
#12 - Nigeria (-1)
Judging by what Nigeria displayed in the first window of the qualifiers, the D'Tigers have a lot to prove in the next three games.
Nigeria announced David Fizdale, a two-time NBA champion and former assistant coach of the Miami Heat, in hopes of inspiring the West Africans to victory.
However, with only a week until the second round of qualifiers, the team has made little to no announcement about their preparations.
Heading into the third window of the qualifiers, Nigeria are 1-2, but one or two wins could see them progress to the next round.
#11 - DR Congo (+1)
The DR Congo's Leopards have vivid memories of beating Senegal twice during the 2023 World Cup African qualifiers, in Dakar and Alexandria, respectively.
However, three months ago in Dakar, the Leopards were no match for Senegal, losing by 19 points (75-19) after falling behind by 25 points.
The Congolese will need to win at least one game, and they will have to play much better than Côte d'Ivoire and Madagascar because beating Senegal again in Dakar seems unlikely.
#10 - Cape Verde (-2)
The Blue Sharks of Cape Verde should never be underestimated. Overlooking them after they finished 2-1 with a -14 point differential could be a terrible mistake for their Group A rivals: Cameroon, Libya, and South Sudan.
The Blue Sharks are returning to Cameroon, where they have fond memories of beating South Sudan and Chad in a three-team playoff for the 2021 AfroBasket Qualifiers in 2020.
If seven-foot center Edy Tavares returns for the first time since suiting up for his country at the 2025 AfroBasket last August, then the islanders have reason to be optimistic.
#9 - Egypt (+1)
Losing two of their three Group D games at home has to be a valuable lesson for Egypt, a team aiming to qualify for the World Cup for the second consecutive time.
The Pharaohs are familiar with their opponents, Angola, Mali, and Uganda. As quick learners, they are capable of advancing to the second round with one or three wins.
#8 - Tunisia (+1)
After the Eagles of Carthage finished 2-1 in the opening window of the qualifiers held on their home soil, the main takeaway is that they look nothing like the team that finished 1-3 in their worst campaign (12th place) in the last edition of the AfroBasket.
However, they are the first to admit that they have yet to reach their full potential, which saw them top the African basketball charts for over a decade.
In November, Tunisia began their campaign with an 88-78 victory over Nigeria. They followed with a 79-66 win over Rwanda. However, Guinea stalled their resurgence with a 66-57 win, their lowest scoring output in a decade.
#7 - South Sudan (-)
The Bright Stars of South Sudan may be ranked number one on the continent in the FIBA Rankings since August 10, 2024, but they continue to face challenges game after game.
In November, Cameroon tested South Sudan, limiting them to 56 points in a 60-56 victory.
South Sudan's 3–4 win–loss record dating back to the 2025 AfroBasket has raised eyebrows. Heading to Douala to take on hosts Cameroon, Cape Verde, and Libya will certainly be another battle to keep an eye on.
#6 - Côte d'Ivoire (-3)
Côte d'Ivoire is one of three teams — alongside Guinea and Mali — that remain undefeated in the current campaign. They are undoubtedly the team to beat in Group B.
The Elephants are returning to Dakar looking to extend their winning streak. They have every reason to believe they can win, but they will need to play even better than they have before. The hosts, Senegal, will certainly have a say in the outcome.
#5 - Angola (-1)
There is no doubt that Angola could have ranked higher, given how consistently well they play in front of their home fans.
However, their one-point loss to Mali in February, when they allowed Mali to go on an 8-2 scoring run in the final minute and a half, reminded them of the need for consistent defense.
If they win at least one of their next three games, they will advance to the second round.
#4 - Guinea (-2)
There is still no sign of the four players who made Guinea a threat to higher-ranked teams and caused the biggest upsets at the 2025 AfroBasket and in their opening games back in November: Shannon Evans, Mamadi Diakite, Souleyman Boum Jr., and Alpha Diallo.
Guinea is a highly competitive team, and building on their winning momentum would be the cherry on top, but they need the defensive prowess and scoring ability of Diallo, the aggressiveness of Diakite, and the scoring talent of Evans and Boum Jr. to keep their hopes alive for the 2027 Qatar World Cup.
#3 Cameroon (+3)
Cameroon could not have asked for a better opportunity to boost their World Cup aspirations than hosting the second round of Group A.
Back in November, the Indomitable Lions showed everyone why they are serious contenders for one of the five World Cup spots for African teams, with nail-biting wins over South Sudan and Libya.
With the expected support from their home fans and if shooting guards Jeremiah Hill and Fabian Ateba find their rhythm, it wouldn't be surprising to see Cameroon finish 3-0 in Douala.
#2 - Senegal (+3)
The current Senegalese basketball team is often described as one of the most talented in the country's history.
With lethal shooting guards, playmakers, and bigs who can do it all, not to mention the experience this group of players has gained recently, this Senegal team is expected to win at least three games.
#1 - Mali (-)
Last August, Mali was left wanting a second chance after losing to Angola in the 2025 AfroBasket final. Six months later, that chance came in Alexandria, Egypt, where they topped Angola 80-79.
The return of Aliou Diarra, who sat out the first three games in February, is a huge addition to one of the three undefeated teams in the current campaign.
Siriman Kanoute, Oumar Ballo, Diarra, and Ibrahima Cherif Haidara will certainly feel at home when they head to Luanda again, given the large Malian community in the Angolan capital.
DISCLAIMER: The Power Rankings are completely subjective and in no way represent an official or precise ranking system. All comments reflect the author’s opinions.
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