BELGRADE (Serbia) - With China and France having booked their spots at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup, it's all eyes on Nigeria and Mali as they fight over the last ticket in Belgrade Group B.

The wider significance on what is shaping up to be an exciting last day of action is that it will also determine who will fly the flag for African basketball in Sydney.

The scenario is more complicated than a winner takes all situation. Nigeria (1-1), who took a historic win against France on Friday, will advance with a win, or a loss by 6 points or less if China beats France later in the day. Meanwhile Mali (0-2) will secure qualification if they beat Nigeria by 7 points. Or, if they win by less than 7 points and France wins against China. 

Nigeria claimed a historic first ever win against France in their last game

To predict how things might go down, we have enlisted the expert insight of FIBA commentators Shona Thornburn and Jeff Taylor, as well as FIBA Women's Basketball specialist Paul Nilsen.

What will be the key to the game for each team?

Shona: Nigeria have to come out from the first minute ready to play, because in both games so far in this tournament, they have come out far too slow. And, it takes so much energy having to keep coming back in these situations. Playing right from the tip-off is paramount. I think Mali must to try and get the ball inside to their best player (Sika Kone) from the outset and make an early statement of intent.

Mali might need to pressure the ball and try to wear down Nigeria with their physical approach

Jeff: Mali have a deeper bench so they can try and pressure the ball and wear down Nigeria, who have but one guard, Promise Amukamara, and an eight-player rotation. So Mali must be thinking about forcing turnovers and getting points off turnovers. They must make Vickie Macaulay work for everything she gets.

Offensively, Nigeria need more of the same from the France game. If they spread the court and create space to drive,  they can get to rim, hit runners, pass to cutters, or hit pull-up jumpers. Nigeria are very strong with the ball. Defensively, Nigeria should force Mali to beat them from outside. Mali have hit just eight of their 44 attempts from three-point range.

Paul: Nigeria must retain their aggressive approach and might prefer a half-court game at key moment so will want to dictate the tempo. Mali might want to run because shooting is not their strong point. They prefer to score in transition or get the ball inside when that option is take away. If they struggle to do this, who is going to make outside buckets for Mali? That was the big question coming into the tournament and it remains so heading into this last game. Without an outside threat they look limited offensively. 

Who will be the most important player and the 'X-Factor' for each team?

Touty Gandega's experience will be precious

Shona: Obviously Kone needs to have a big game as Mali's best player. That's a lot of responsibility on a teenager. The experience of Touty Gandega will also be a big 'X-Factor' because she simply has to use her veteran know-how and leadership if Mali are to get this done and beat their Continental rivals.

Nigeria's most important player is Victoria Macauley, because she has a big defensive assignment guarding Kone. You also saw against France that offensively when she is aggressive and knocking down shots, she is a very dangerous player. Oderah Chidom does a lot of work that goes unnoticed and the ability of her to contribute like she did against France will also go a long way to determining whether Nigeria makes it.

Jeff: Kone is the most important player for Mali and needs to be as impactful as she was against France. As Nigeria do not have a towering, big center to trouble her as China's Li Yueru, expect Kone to bring the intensity on defense, and the boards. The X-factor is Adama Coulibaly, the team's ferocious 24-year-old power forward who showed great resolve against China and had 15 points. 

Macaulay is the real deal for Nigeria. She does it all. The X-factor is Chidom. Can she continue to play at the high level she has demonstrated so far in this pivotal game? She's among the leaders in all statistical categories for D'Tigress and will need to help solve the Mali defensive pressure, and be a creator on offense - especially when Macaulay is out of the game.

Paul: Nigeria guard Promise Amukamara played almost 39 minutes in the win against France and much will hang on her ability to provide the focus and composure in the backcourt. In terms of an 'X-Factor' for Nigeria, what about Pallas Kunaiyi-Akpanah? She went 5 of 5 against China then was cold against France. If she can turn the offensive tap back on, that could be a big boost for her team.

Kone is the lock for Mali as everybody knows. I am also interested in whether Djeneba N'Diaye can be the 'X-Factor' and make even just a couple of three-pointers. Mali needs that threat from the the wings and she is currently 1 of 10 from downtown.

Who do you predict will take the last ticket and fly the flag for Africa in Sydney?

Nigeria and Mali met last year in the FIBA Women's AfroBasket 2021 Final

Shona: After watching the gutsy performance by Nigeria against France and seeing all their players step up at certain important points of that game, I am going to have to go with them. Their extra experience should help them to get the win they need. 

Jeff: Nigeria have more skilled players on offense. They also have the advantage as three-time defending champions of Africa. Their championship experience will ultimately get them through. 

Paul: I said months ago Nigeria could struggle to qualify due to the absence of Ezinne Kalu and some other absences. The win against France was awesome and tips the balance in their favor now. Mali pulling off a potential surprise is not out of the question, but would probably only be a tight win. Then it would all come down to China against France. It's going to be a fascinating day for sure!

FIBA