BERLIN (Germany) - The German capital of Berlin will stage the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in September.
After the draw for the 16-team event, some national team will be liking their chances of success more than others. Our experts weigh in with their thoughts on what will unfold at the big event.
Who are our experts?
Michelle Timms: Australia legend "Timmsy" is in both the FIBA Hall of Fame and the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame after an incredible career with the Opals
Shona Thorburn: Former Canada point guard and a FIBA Media commentator since 2017
Azania Stewart: Former Great Britain center and a commentator for FIBA Media since 2019
Kristen Mann: Former professional player and commentator since FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2025
Mark Clark: Former Great Britain head coach, commentator at the Women's Basketball Cups in 2010, 2014 and 2018 and has done numerous other events.
Jeff Taylor: the "Voice of FIBA", began commentating FIBA basketball events in 1997
What is the group of death?
Shona: I think it’s a toss up between group A and C. Ultimately I think group A will be the hardest to get out of. That being said it will be hard to predict who will come out of group B!
Kristen: I really don’t think that there is a group of death, but if I have to choose…. I’ll pick Group A.
Timms: Going off current FIBA World Ranking Women, I'd have to say the hardest pool is Group C with Belgium (5), Australia (3), Puerto Rico (13) and Türkiye (16) but to be in Pool D is a close second, with the former winner (USA) and finalist (China) from the previous Women's World Cup, in the same pool.
Azania: This is a tough call because every group looks strong - it really could go either way between Group A and B. But if I had to pick, I'd say Group A is shaping up to be the group of death. Every game feel like it’s going to be a battle.
Mark: Group C looks tough. Two top ranked teams in Belgium and Australia, yet both Türkiye and Puerto Rico have the talent to upset the two top seeds. Teams could beat each other in this group, points difference and head to head results could be decisive. It could in a short tournament be a real plus to play tough games from Day 1 but you have to get out the group, with the bonus of winning the group is huge.
Jeff: Group A offers plenty of peril. All bets are off when Germany, Japan and Spain compete against each other while Mali can beat almost any team if at their best. Mali beat Czechia and South Sudan at the Women's World Cup Qualifying Tournament in Wuhan, and were very close against China and Brazil.
Who got lucky?
Jeff: Türkiye are definitely celebrating because they will be favorites against Puerto Rico. If they win that one and reach the Qualification for the Quarter-Finals as the third place team in Group C, they would avoid USA in the Quarter-Finals and instead likely play France, who only beat them 71-69 last year at the EuroBasket. An upset of the French would give them one win away from a medal.
Mark: France got lucky if they have a full, healthy roster. If so, they should be able to win the group and ease their way into the tournament. If their path to winning the group is comfortable, will that be the best thing for getting on the podium or does that open up the upset loss in the Quarter-Final? The draw gives the other teams in that group the real opportunity to make the knock out stage.
Azania: I think Nigeria may have caught a bit of a break this time. They've often found themselves drawn alongside Team USA at the World Cup, and while they've held their own in those matchups, I'm sure they won't mind avoiding them for once.
Timms: It depends which way you want to look at it. France got lucky but will that come back to bite them, not being tested in the early round games. Personally I'd rather be battle ready making my way through to a tough first round phase. Kristen: France.
Shona: Team USA doesn’t look like they will have much of a challenge during the group phase… unless China plays like they did at the last World Cup…
What are the Top 3 First Round games and why?
Timms choice:
Australia v Belgium- both of these teams expect to be on the podium at the end of the World Cup- Australia defeated Belgium in 2024 to win Bronze at the Olympics by only 4 points, so this rematch is going to be very exciting to watch and will give an indication of what we can expect from both teams moving deeper into the tournament and also most likely the winner will finish top of their group.
Spain v Germany- Two European powers going head to head, with one on their home turf, sets the scene for a very loud exciting, high-pressure game. I'm excited to watch Spain as it just wasn't quite the same with them not being at the previous World Cup in Australia. Germany with home-court advantage, having experienced this (1994), I know special things can happen when you host the event, and I won't be fooled by the current ranking which has Spain 6th and Germany 11th. And once again, this game could decide who finishes in that all important top position of Group A
Czech v Italy- This battle intrigues me with the winner in my opinion making their way through to the next stage behind USA and China. On a side note, any team the USA plays with Caitlin Clark, will be one I will be watching too:)
Azania's choice:
My top first-round game has to be USA v China. China just match up really well against the USA. China brings so much experience and a unique, disciplined style of play that always makes it a fascinating contest.
Belgium Cats v the Opals. Australia always comes into the World Cup exceptionally well prepared, so it’ll be really interesting to see how they stack up against the two-time defending European champions.
Japan v the entire group A. With their high-octane offense and relentless 3-point shooting, it’s hard not to wonder how any team is going to keep up with them.
Kristen's choice:
Germany v Spain — Spain’s structure and execution vs Germany’s size and home court energy — a game that could swing Group A depending on who controls the tempo.
Belgium v Australia — Two podium contenders: Belgium’s spacing and precision, led by Emma Meesseman, vs Australia’s size, physicality, and depth. A high-level game that could shape the group.
Korea v Nigeria — Rematch of a qualifier game with contrasting styles — Korea’s spacing and shooting v Nigeria’s athletic pressure, could decide advancement in Group B.
Shona's 's choice:
Spain v Germany in the group of death on Game Day 1, could determine who finishes first in that group.
Czechia v Italy on game day 1 could also determine who advances out of group D.
Belgium v Australia on the last group phase game day in group C should be a showcase of possible medalists going up against each other in the group phase.
Mark's 's choice:
USA v China: Everyone wants to see the new USA. It's potentially a generational roster. A rematch of the final played four years ago. Have China the talent to medal again
Belgium v Australia: In the group of death, this could be the biggest one-off game of the First Round. It could literally decide the group and the path to the podium.
Spain v Japan: I'm a huge fan of both of these national teams. Spain have always found ways to compete in knockout stages. Technically and tactically they are alongside the best. Japan in recent years play a style that excites, that gets fans to buy tickets. They have become fans' second team to support. It's a cliché, but they play with a smile on the face. Their ability to stretch the floor and speed up the game is just great to watch.
Jeff's 's choice:
Czechia v Italy: Italy, a much better since the return of Andrea Capobianco as coach, have the potential to go far in this tournament yet the Czechs have shown the last few summers they can give any team a really hard time. Czechia will view this as a game they must win to get out of the First Round. I love both of these squads. This one is 50-50 for me.
Hungary v Korea: Yet another pivotal game as teams look to advance from Group B. Any game with the multi-skilled power forward Dorka Juhasz of Hungary in it is worth the price of admission.
Puerto Rico v Türkiye: This game is flies under the radar yet it's is likely a do-or-die clash as they try to advance from Group C in the First Round. Will Ayse Cora Yamaner and Esra Ural Topuz once again elevate their games for Türkiye and help them progress?
Early podium predictions
Jeff: 1, USA. 2, Belgium and 3, Australia
Mark: No surprise in USA. I like France to make to podium. China to medal again.
Shona: USA - can’t see who is beating them, yet again. Belgium - continue to always come up during the big moments, remember EuroBasket last summer. Germany - if they can stay healthy, this will be their biggest challenge with so many games in a short amount of time, they could surprise the world with a podium finish.
Kristen: USA, France and Australia.
Timms: USA, France and Australia. I'm total biased here but this could be Belgium too.
Azania: USA, France and Australia.
Who will be the surprise of this WWC?
Kristen: China.
Azania: Hungary could be the surprise package of this World Cup. They’ve been quietly putting in consistent work, developing their young talent, and it feels like they’re ready to take that next step forward. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them pull off a couple of upsets.
Mark: Torn between Nigeria and Japan - Japan to get a Semi-Final, not sure if this is a huge surprise; Nigeria with a full roster making the Quarter-Final. The draw helps them because they have the talent. They need a good preparation and team chemistry and they could make a statement.
Shona: Germany if they can stay healthy. I also think Nigeria could be a dangerous opponent for lots of teams to go up against.
Timms: From a team perspective, I think Germany - home advantage, exciting team. I expect at least one upset in this tournament and for them to go deep into the Finals.
Jeff: I'm going with the team that surprised me last summer, Italy. This team plays with so much heart. Like Dean Smith said, "Play hard, play smart, play together." That is Italy.
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this article are those of the aforementioned experts and are based on personal analysis of the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026. They do not necessarily reflect the official position of FIBA, its partners, or participating teams.
The analysis is intended for editorial and discussion purposes only to enhance the experience of the fans following the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026 and should not be interpreted as a definitive prediction of outcomes.
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