Those known and unknowns after Rio 2016 Olympic Women's Basketball draw - Part 1

NEWCASTLE (Paul Nilsen's Women's Basketball Worldwide) - It's an interesting time to be a scout or analyst for the seven nations who already have a ticket to Rio deposited safely in their pocket.

Last Friday's draw will have had those aforementioned staff of the various national federations scrambling for the game tapes (do they still exist?) and all of the other data needed to find out everything possible about those known opponents who were confirmed during the ceremony held at FIBA's House of Basketball.

A crystal ball will also be handy of course - especially for Australia, Brazil and Japan in Group A, who still have no fewer than three opponents to be confirmed via the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament (WOQT).

For Canada, USA, Serbia and Senegal, things are slightly more certain in Group B, with just two more nations preparing to join when the WOQT action concludes in Nantes, France on 19 June.

So what did the draw throw up so far? Let's start this week with Group A.

Australia
Head coach Brendan Joyce is unlikely to have the legendary Lauren Jackson to call upon if most recent reports are to be believed. That could of course be a smokescreen, but either way, they should be happy with the draw and I would hope they can perform as they did two years ago at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship.

On paper they should like their chances against Brazil and while Japan will cause issues in terms of their quickness, they should be looking at 2-0. It's a guess which three teams will join, but all would be difficult and if not more so than against their two known opponents.

Nevertheless, I love the sheer size of Marianna Tolo and Elizabeth Cambage and perhaps only Belarus can truly withstand that kind of height in terms of matching-up. Such a twin towers approach is intriguing and with Erin Phillips and Penny Taylor still on board, the Opals will be targeting the podium.

For me, they are up with Canada, Spain, France and Serbia as genuine medal contenders (more on that bold statement in the many weeks to come before August).

Brazil
Let's be brutally honest, they have been pretty awful in the last couple of years and a change of coach so close to the Games has led to the longer-term plan more or less being ripped up.

Head coach Antonio Carlos Barbosa has gone back to the future with Erika Souza and maybe even the likes of Iziane Castro-Marques too, but talk of making it to the tournament stretch seems optimistic to say the least.

Returning to players in the twilight of their careers is smart from an experience point of view, but it will be up to others to show they can do it at this level. Step up Taina Paixao for example and big production is likely to be required from Nadia Colhado inside.

Nadia Colhado will have to be at her best for hosts Brazil at the Rio 2016 Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament 

Brazil could be absolutely anything in my opinion. Perhaps home support can inspire as the golden oldies enjoy one probable last hurrah, or I could even see them going win-less if things go wrong - now there is an unpalatable prospect, especially as it would mean no victories for the host nations in two successive Olympic Games!

If they lose to Australia as expected and also to Japan, then that scenario is not impossible with some probably tough European teams maybe making it through.

Would Brazil even beat a China for example right now? It looks a little bit bleak with only a handful of months to go and they will need that 100 days of preparation which has been set aside.

Japan
They completely flopped on their last global outing at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship and are the one team I can't wait to see. They didn't do themselves justice in Ankara two years ago and it was like night and day, compared to that first-half destruction of China in Wuhan last year in the Final of the FIBA Asia Women's Championship. That is still as good a display as I have ever seen on the international stage.

I love their style and now that they are finding some success in the paint to go with the high tempo and trademark approach of years gone by, they finally look three-dimensional and a big danger.

There aren't too many better playmakers than Asami Yoshida and they now have WNBA quality in Ramu Tokashiki. They were pulverised by Brazil back in 2004, but this time around they should be disappointed if they don't take a victory and make up for that painful loss of an eye-watering 66 points in Athens.

The biggest question for me is whether having conquered the mental test of proving they can be the Queens Of Asia, can they now convince themselves that they can win games again on the worldwide stage?

I for one can't see why they can't do it. Beating Australia will be a push, but I don't think anyone emerging from Nantes will particularly want to play Japan and that is testament to their potential.

Paul Nilsen

FIBA

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