Stats cutting edge

PARIS (The Monday International show) - With the advent and increasing popularity of fantasy leagues, video games, internet forums, sports radio and online betting, never before have the jobs of owner, coach or general manager been so heavily present in the media.

Every fan or player can see himself in those roles and communicating about it is considered by many as quite amusing. This weekend I watched a very interesting video on espn.com called “Dorkapaloosa” which showed an MIT forum treating the subject of advanced statistical analysis and team performance in pro sports.

The NBA was represented on the panel by Dallas owner Mark Cuban, Houston GM, Darryl Morey, and espn.com funny man Bill Simmons. Cuban is the best example of a modern-day internet mogul, hands-on owner who knows how to use new technology and marketing genius to rebuild his franchise, win games and put fannies into seats. Morey represents a new breed of young, highly-educated math wiz applying his savoir faire to making smart personnel decisions and trying to get an edge on opponents by breaking down statistically their tendencies, strengths and weaknesses in various game situations.

Number-crunching can give an edge if used and applied intelligently by coaches and players (for instance, knowing from which spots on the floor certain teams or players will have a better or worse shooting percentage). But there are limits to their relevancy when you include parameters of individual and group psychology often described as team chemistry. Teams test future draft picks or free agents with a battery of physical and psychological exams, running thorough background checks through scouts and networking.

Simmons and Cuban pointed out that all the math geniuses applying their skills to data analysis in sports will soon reach a ceiling and the next frontier will be on the psychological side because in the last few years, team chemistry issues have often been decisive in major personnel decisions after years of free spending and over-paying many NBA players on raw talent alone.

In these times of falling revenue, the goal for the teams is to get the biggest bang for their buck by finding undervalued players, what I would describe as the Spurs school of smart management. The best example of that this season is the Oklahoma City Thunder GM, Sam Presti and his hand-chosen Coach of the Year Scott Brooks, who have transformed a group of relatively inexpensive young bucks.

The group of Kevin Durant, Jeff Green, James Harden and Russell Westbrook plus an experienced Serbian Nenad Kristic, along with an inexperienced Congolese Serge Ibaka and a Swiss defensive gem Thabo Sefolosha all add up to make a cohesive and enthusiastic unit on both ends of the court.

The Thunder’s surprising fifth place in the strong western conference attests to their brilliant management skills and personnel decisions in a business where making the right choice 50 percent of the time is considered the average!

This brings us to wonder if the new owner in Charlotte, Michael Jordan, will develop a Jerry West-like golden touch for personnel decisions along with a Mark Cuban-like hands-on marketing strategy. Or will he disappoint in much the same way that Elgin Baylor, the former GM, and Donald Sterling, the owner, have disappointed Clippers fans for 30 years!

From a personal standpoint, I have to admit that all this geeky, computer science applied to basketball bores me as much as salary cap science, but I do agree with Mark Cuban that the NBA could modernise their game stats to more realistically describe the action.

We must find ways (as Dean Smith did 50 years ago – this stuff isn't so new after all!) to better evaluate defensive performance through individual opponent's real shooting percentage, ball pressure, deflections, changing opponent’s shots, possessions gained by diving on the floor, efficient rotations, charges taken, etc…

On offense, let’s calculate accurate overall player evaluations by touches, efficient screens, passes leading to an assist, keeping offensive rebounds alive, spacing and a multitude of other factors that are just as important as classic stats!

Don’t worry, the smart teams already do calculate this stuff! In the end, I think that the glorious incertitude of sports is what attracts us the most because the teams with the biggest budget and most talent don’t always win the championship and the human parameters of preparation, hard work, courage, solidarity, perseverance, abnegation, cohesiveness, leadership and smart management are often decisive.

George EDDY