MIES (Switzerland) - With the national team break behind us, and only two weeks of action left in the Regular Season, Season X of the Basketball Champions League, powered by Ameresco SUNEL is starting to take shape.
We've seen favorites prove their mettle and underdogs stake their claims, but what, if anything, can the advanced stats tell us about which teams we can expect to find making a run to the Final Four in May?
Net rating
The chart you see above is the Top 10 teams in the BCL so far for Net Rating.
Essentially, what we mean by Net Rating is how many points better each team has been than their opponents, per 100 possessions.
For all their apparent struggles in the Spanish Liga Endesa, back-to-back champions Unicaja have now won three games on the bounce domestically and never really looked close to losing a game in the BCL.
They sit comfortably top of the Net Rating charts, having been 32 points (!) better than opponents per 100 possessions.
AEK BC sit second, having been to +23 points per 100 possessions thus far, and have looked good value for that ranking.
Newcomers Joventut Badalona and Dreamland Gran Canaria join perennial advanced stats machines La Laguna Tenerife in a Spanish-centric Top 5.
Rytas Vilnius and Galatasaray MCT Technic have almost identical Net Ratings so far, with group rivals ALBA BERLIN and Elan Chalon not far behind.
NHSZ-Szolnoki Olajbanyasz sit second in Group F, and their impressive campaign sees them claim the final spot in the Top 10 most efficient teams in the BCL to date.
Offensive and defensive ratings
Starting with offensive efficiency, we are seeing offenses in general trending down.
Whilst the chart above only shows the Top 10 teams for offensive efficiency, if we were to zoom out and look at all 32 teams, we would see that 27 of those teams are scoring at a rate over 100 points per 100 possessions, or 1 point per possession, which is recognized as a baseline level for offensive efficiency.
Whilst 27 of 32 teams might sound high, if this trend played out for the rest of the season, it would be the lowest number of teams in the 10-year history of the BCL.
When it comes to offenses, it should come as a surprise to nobody to find Unicaja and Tenerife occupying the top two spots in the BCL this season.
Rytas Vilnius coming in third at a rate of 121 points per 100, perhaps highlights why many are suggesting this Rytas team might be the one to finally crack the nut and make a run to the Final Four.
Moving on to the defensive data, the chart below shows us points allowed per 100 possessions and again, the best 10 teams in the league so far this season.
What instantly jumps out is how ruthlessly efficient AEK have been on the defensive end this season.
If they continue holding teams to just 90 points per 100 possessions, they would be comfortably the best defensive team we have ever seen in the BCL.
Whether or not they can manage that when the level increases with the Round of 16 remains to be seen, but that shouldn't take anything away from how good Dragan Sakota's team have been on the defensive end.
The rest of the five teams holding their opponents to less than 1 point per possession are, unsurprisingly, Unicaja in second and then ALBA BERLIN in third, playing the most active and energetic defense you could hope to see.
Spanish newcomers Badalona and Granca are making their depth and size count on the defensive end.
Ball possession
The final group of advanced stats metrics we will look at all fall under the umbrella of gaining possession, keeping possession, and using possession of the ball.
Starting with possibly the most important of all, turnovers.
What we see above is the best 10 teams in the BCL when it comes to turning the ball over.
Last year's finalists, Galatasaray, continue to further their case as a contender with a turnover ratio of just 9 percent, meaning they turn the ball over on just 9 percent of their possessions and either generate a field goal attempt or get to the free-throw line on 91 percent of them.
Offensive design, like the play in the video below, with its focus on a no-nonsense approach to finding the best matchup, as quickly as possible, will be playing a major role in their ability to make the most of every possession.
Tenerife, Badalona, and Pallacanestro Trieste also turn the ball over on less than 10 percent of their possessions.
Next up, we look at offensive rebounding and specifically the rate at which teams successfully collect their own misses.
With the relatively recent event of the Tagging Up system of offensive rebounding, teams have been getting better and better at crashing the glass.
At least 18 teams now rebound over 30 percent of their misses, which has been the case since Telekom Baskets Bonn won the BCL in the 2022-23 season.
The chart you see above shows us the Top 10 teams in the BCL for offensive rebounding rate.
Rytas Vilnius have continued their recent trend of being an elite offensive rebounding team. In the 2023-24 season, they set an all-time record by rebounding an outrageous 44 percent of their own misses.
This term, they are back at the top with 43 percent, and we wouldn't put it past them to match their previous best by the time it's all said and done in Season X.
Elric Delord's mathematical approach to basketball is also worthy of a shoutout here, with his team in second at 38 percent. We spoke to him about tagging up rebounding and basketball by the numbers. You can learn more about that here.
Last but not least, we are looking at Free Throw Ratio.
It's not a secret that getting to the line wins basketball games. Not only is a free throw one of the most efficient shots in the game, but it also comes from the added benefit of drawing a foul on your opponent.
This metric specifically focuses on the ratio of free throws attempted against the total number of field goals attempted.
Elan Chalon are topping the table for this metric with their relentless focus on pace and attacking the basket.
They have have Free Throw Ratio of 46 percent. Nine of the Top 10 have a ratio above 40 percent, and 25 of 32 teams have a ratio above 30 percent.
AEK are, again, worth a mention here as the only team with a ratio above 40 percent that also shoots over 80 percent from the charity stripe, making them the team generating the highest percentage of their points from the stripe.