JEDDAH (Saudi Arabia) – It hasn’t always been smooth sailing, but China and New Zealand have navigated every storm to arrive at the FIBA Asia Cup 2025 Semi-Finals with spotless 4-0 records. Now, their paths collide in a winner-takes-all clash for a place in the championship game.
China opened their campaign with a nervy win over hosts Saudi Arabia, then steadied themselves to sweep Group C. In the Quarter-Finals, they edged past long-time rivals Korea in a high-intensity battle, powered by their size and timely shooting.
New Zealand’s journey has been just as dramatic. After grinding out a narrow group-phase win over the Philippines, the Tall Blacks mounted the biggest comeback of the tournament in the Quarter-Finals, erasing a 22-point deficit to stun Lebanon. For both sides, it’s been a bend-but-don’t-break campaign, but in Jeddah, something has to give.
Key matchup: Frontcourt face-off
Containing Dedric Lawson was already a challenge for New Zealand in the last round, and now they face an even bigger assignment: China’s dynamic duo of Hu Jinqiu and Wang Junjie. Hu has been a double-double machine, ranking fifth in overall efficiency and reaching double-figures in both points and rebounds in all but one game. Wang is coming off his best performance yet, posting 21 points, 7 boards and 3 triples against Korea. Coach Judd Flavell will need to mix and match Max Darling, Tohi Smith-Milner and Carlin Davison to handle the ‘Great Wall’ inside.
X-Factor: Rebounding
New Zealand have been the second-best rebounding team in the tournament, but they were beaten 40-35 on the glass by Lebanon, forcing them to play catch-up for most of that game. China, meanwhile, average fewer rebounds overall but just outworked Korea 49-38 in the Quarters. With Hu patrolling the paint, whoever wins the battle of the boards could well win the game.
Stats don’t lie
The battle in the paint will be fierce, but both teams can also hurt opponents from deep. China rank second in three-point accuracy at 40.0%, hitting 10.5 triples per game, while New Zealand shoot 36.4% and make 11.0 treys a night. The perimeter game could be the swing factor. If one side catches fire from outside, it might be decisive.
Previous Asia Cup meetings
This will be the first-ever Asia Cup meeting between China and New Zealand. They’ve clashed before in other world-level events, with the Tall Blacks holding a narrow 4-3 edge in those contests.
One is a former champion hungry for a return to the FIBA Asia Cup Final and reclaim past glory. The other is a rising power chasing its first-ever Asia Cup Final. Expect a bruising, high-stakes battle in Jeddah with no guarantees, except that one unbeaten record is going to fall.
FIBA