Jelinek needs to show up for the Czechs

VALENCIA (Jeff Taylor's Eurovision) - A sure thing doesn't exist in international basketball. There are favorites and there are underdogs, but there are upsets.

From now until 4 July, when one of the three six-team FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments (OQTs) tips off in Belgrade, Serbia will be the team that everyone expects to win and advance to the Rio de Janeiro Games.

Runners-up at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup in Spain and Semi-Finalists at last year's EuroBasket, Serbia have plenty of talent. They have continuity. They have an inspirational coach. They have tradition.

What they do not have, contrary to what a lot of people have been saying since the draw for the OQT, is an automatic ticket to travel to Rio. Games have to be played. There is danger, especially if the Serbia players start to believe they are going to be far and away the best team at the Belgrade OQT.

What has to be accounted for is the X factor. In Group A with Serbia are Angola and Puerto Rico. Everyone knows about Angola because they have been playing in the big international tournaments since the 1992 Olympics.

Angola dominated basketball on their continent for two decades but have only won one of the last three AfroBaskets, although they finished second both in 2011 and 2015.

At Olympic Games and FIBA Basketball World Cups, Angola have been able to get the odd win but they would seem to pose little if any threat to Serbia. When these sides met on the opening day of the 2010 FIBA Basketball World Cup, Serbia won 94-44.

Serbia were decisive winners while playing without suspended duo Milos Teodosic and Nenad Krstic. Teodosic is now the captain of Serbia and will feature this year.

Puerto Rico, meanwhile, have been in decline since 2004, when they upset the United States on the opening day of the Athens Olympics. Right now, Puerto Rico have no coach. There is a rich tradition of basketball on the island but not much suggests this will be a danger game for Serbia. That's true even if Jose Barea, Carlos Arroyo and Maurice Harkless play for the Boricuas.

The danger for Serbia is in their last two games, which are likely to be against the Czech Republic and Latvia, though not necessarily in that order. Those are the two sides that are expected to beat Japan in Group B and advance to the Semi-Finals.

If New York Knicks rookie Kristaps Porzingis decides to play for Latvia, their chances of winning the OQT improves. If you're looking for an X factor, cast your eyes on the Czech team.

Ronen Ginzburg's side will have two of the best players at the OQT in Tomas Satoransky of Barcelona and Jan Vesely of Fenerbahce. They combined for 43 points in the Czechs' 89-75 defeat to Serbia last year in the EuroBasket Quarter-Finals. What that tells you is this dynamic duo cannot beat a team like Serbia without getting some help.

The prime candidate to step up for the Czechs will be David Jelinek. In that EuroBasket game, Jelinek played the sum total of eight minutes and did not score. He was not an X factor but a non-factor.

At the EuroBasket, though, Jelinek did have big games on three important occasions. In their opening win over Estonia, he had 11 points and then in a Round of 16 upset of Croatia, the wingman had 13 points. Finally, in their pivotal triumph over Latvia in the battle for seventh place with an OQT berth at stake, the Brno-born Jelinek scored 10 points.

David Jelinek (CZE) is a potential source of points for the Czechs in Belgrade

What's encouraging for Ginzburg and the Czechs is that Jelinek, who has played at the top level in Europe before in Spain with Laboral Kutxa in 2013-14 but suffered a loss of confidence, has rediscovered it this season in Poland with Anwil Wlocławek.

He is once again a sharpshooter, a threat from the perimeter that has to be accounted for. Jelinek is leading the Polish league in scoring at 19.4 points per game. He said to sportowefakty.wp.pl that he is feeling very good about this game.

I am glad that I came to Anwil Wloclawek. In the end, I am playing to the best of my ability. In previous years it did not always happen, which kind of frustrated me. I must say that thanks to (Anwil) coach (Igor) Milicic)... - Jelinek

Ginzburg will be hoping that Jelinek carries the self-belief into the training camp. The coach firmly declared when put in charge of the national team before their EuroBasket 2015 qualifying campaign that the aim was to get to Rio de Janeiro. He needs someone like Jelinek to step up.

Jeff Taylor

FIBA

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