It starts over again, and again, and again

ISTANBUL (The View from Downunder) – It was no one other than Forrest Gump who said: “My Mama always said you've got to put the past behind you before you can move on.”

Forrest’s mama had a point, and most of the coaches at the FIBA World Championship know it.

A month or two before the championship teams gather in their home countries to begin preparations. They practice often and hard, usually beating up on each other in an attempt to replicate the physicality of international basketball.

Then comes the practice matches and they have to start again. What worked on the practice court that doesn’t work against real opposition? Teams make adjustments on the run to refine their stuff while trying not to give too much away before the real stuff begins.

But then they have to start again.

When the FIBA World Championship starts there is suddenly a lot at stake, the intensity rises and some strategies that looked sure-fire in the practice games simply aren’t effective in the heat of the real battle. And players who might be carrying injury or playing at their first major championship might be caught out, and rotations have to change.

No point hanging onto something because it worked in the past, in a cutthroat tournament situation it is about what is working now.

On the first day of this tournament, Greece, Australia, Canada, Puerto Rico and Spain all found out the some of the things they were going to rely on had to be tinkered with. Not time to hit the panic button, just to make adjustments that can be the difference between a close win or loss.

Of course, 16 teams get through to the knockout rounds and then they have to start again. Execution has to be spot on because every play could end up being the one that decided the result, and a slow start can be a ticket to the airport, as Australia found out.

More than that, by this time in the tournament your opponents know pretty much what your are going to do. It becomes a time when, while team offence is still vital, it is the time for players to step up when the offence isn’t getting it done. That takes mental strength.

We all remember the game winning, or near game winning performances of Scola, Huertas, Kleiza and Popovic in the Eight Finals. But there are so many more cameos that play big parts in the outcome.

Early in the Serbia vs Spain Quarter Final Jorge Garbajosa was having a night to forget. In near consecutive plays he committed two turnovers, missed an easy shot and fell over in defence to allow Serbia an easy basket. He had also missed a wide open triple. But Garbo didn’t drop his head and worry about what had past – by midway through the third quarter he had 16 points and was one of the main reasons Spain were still in the game.

Sometimes you just have to start again.

Of course, thanks to the amazing and courageous shooting of Dusko Savanovic, and the last minute, loooooooooong distance heroics of Milos Teodosic, Spain got sent home early. Some great teams miss out, that’s just the way it is.

I don’t think too many would argue that Brazil could have medalled at this tournament, or that had Greece performed more strongly against Russia and managed to win that game they would be in the Quarter Finals and a genuine threat.

So now we are down to six teams, soon to be four. Serbia have to start over to a certain extent now. They won that game against Spain largely because of their length. Velickovic, Bjelica, Savanovic, Tepic and Keselj all got great looks because of their length and their mobility for their size.

Velickovic presents all sorts of troubles for most power forwards, and he was simply sublime early against Spain, collecting 10 points, 4 rebounds and 3 assists in the first quarter! It was apparent he was more than ready to take it at the Spanish defence.

As Teodosic said after the game: “We knew that only if we played a very tough and aggressive game could we bet Spain.”

It will be interesting to see if they can be successful against Turkey and their vaunted defence. The Turks are as big as anyone, and their zone in particular makes the court seem very small for opposition teams.

Serbia won’t get the same looks by running picks and rolls and reversing the ball that they have all tournament, and penetrate and kick against the long Turks is fraught with danger.

New Zealand coach Nenad Vucinic said: “I think the teams are too stationary against their zone, they have to move the ball and move the players a lot more, rather than try to position, because they cover from the three point line to inside with the length they’ve got.”

He also rated the Serbs very highly, saying they were a legitimate gold medal chance if they could beat Spain. And two things they do very well that will test Turkey are they push the ball to look for chances before the defence is set, and they move the ball to their array of excellent shooters.

Turkey cover the shooters very well though in their zone, so Serbia will need someone who can operate in the high post and score, or distribute when the defence collapses. Savanovic could well be the man, and I think the Serbs are as well prepared as anyone to tackle the Turkish defence.

The biggest question for me is can they still shoot at such a deadly rate with 15,000 deafening fans creating one of the most hostile environments in world basketball? I don’t think they can. Not for 40 minutes.

Only time will tell, but one thing is certain, after Saturday one of these two teams really will have to start over again, getting ready for the Eurobasket in Lithuania next year.

Paulo Kenney
FIBA

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