How do you make book on this?

CHARLOTTE (Steve Goldberg’s Wheel World) - I don’t know* if there’s betting on Paralympic sport but since bookies in Britain will put odds on pretty much everything, I feel quite sure that they are examining the form of teams competing in the BT Paralympic World Cup this week. (* Of course I know there’s betting, it’s England for God save the Queen’s sake.)

After looking at the results of last week’s 4 Nations tourney in Frankfurt, Germany and the currently running BT Paralympic World Cup in Manchester, England, when it comes to figuring out the favorites in wheelchair basketball, it must be truly maddening for the bookmakers right now.

Granted, it’s not a full window on what to expect in September as there are only four teams in each bracket of the BT World Cup hoops, which also includes athletics, boccia and football competition, but these are all teams worthy of the podium on the final day.

On Saturday when the medals are handed out, we may have a clearer picture on what to expect in four months time. And then again, looking at the results of games played so far in Manchester and others from the 4 Nations, maybe not.

Teams playing in both tournaments include the USA men and women, Germany men and women, Great Britain men, Japan men and Australia women. The British women are playing in their home event while the Netherlands women played in Frankfurt.

So what have we, and the bookmakers, learned so far? One thing is that there are no sure things.

The American women, reigning queens of the court with a string of two Paralympic gold medals and a world championship on their crown, are recently having trouble putting the ball in the basket. After taking the Germans and the Dutch in their first two matches of the 4 Nations, the usually potent American offense disappeared against Australia in a 25-point defeat and didn’t make it back in a 57-50 loss to Germany in the final.

Whether that is an aberration or a sign of something more troubling wasn’t clearly addressed in their first two games in Manchester where they beat the Brits handily but fell again to the Germans who finished second to the Americans in Beijing as well as the World’s. Who’s going to be in better form come September? Who knows?

As noted, the Aussie women blew away the Americans but then lost to the Netherlands in the 4 Nations. I don’t know how they did against Germany in Frankfurt because the 4 Nations website was decidedly un-German with missing scores and information.

Back in Manchester, the British women have yet to win and will need to up their game. The GB men split their first two games, beating Germany by four but losing to the USA by 30 in a rematch of the Beijing bronze medal match won by the Brits.

The USA men on the other hand continue to show strength, going 3-1 and taking Germany by 31 points in the 4 Nations final after losing to the hosts by three in round robin play. The big win over Great Britain in Manchester will definitely be a morale booster as the Americans are on a mission to get their first Paralympic medal since bronze in Sydney. They haven’t stood on the top step of the podium since Seoul after getting disqualified from a gold medal run in Barcelona.

The German men are still working to find their mojo. They did get that initial win at home over the USA, but dropped matches to Japan and Great Britain. They will be a long shot in September.

Check out the BT Paralympic Cup results here.

Conspicuous by their absence from either event are the Aussie men who will most definitely make a run at a second consecutive gold in London.

In Manchester, there are still games to be played and champions will be crowned. In any other year, the BT Paralympic Cup trophy itself would be a big prize but there’s not a player or coach there who will tell you that a medal in May is better than one in September.

You can bet on that.

Steve Goldberg

FIBA

FIBA’s columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

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