MIES (Switzerland) - Looking at Group A of the FIBA U19 Basketball World Cup 2025 it's easy to mark down Serbia as favorites. But the European powers will have a target on their back and Argentina, Mali and New Zealand all could surprise Serbia if things go right.
Still, it seems like Argentina, Mali and New Zealand will be fighting it out for spots two to four in a very balanced group, which could come down to point differential in a multi-nation tie in the standings.
The Favorite: Serbia
The pedigree of Serbia's players and the team's depth are more than enough to put the Europeans in the spot as favorite. The Balkan side will be title contenders after finishing second at the FIBA U18 EuroBasket 2024.
Stars like Savo Drezgic, Andrej Kostic and Aleksa Dimitrijevic will lead the team, but there are strong players right alongside such as Marko Tofoski, Milos Sojic and Nikola Dzepina.
The Underdog: Mali
Don't look past this Mali team. They should have the physical advantage over both Argentina and New Zealand, and they will also have the extra movitation of bringing the country back to the FIBA U19 World Cup after they missed out on the 2023 event.
But most importantly to Mali's chances is that most of their players have learned the game in Europe - predominantly in Spain. Despite all the strength and athleticism of the Malian players, the key will most likely be Sekou Bagayoko.
The guard was only 16 years old but he led Mali in scoring at the FIBA U18 AfroBasket 2024 and made the All-Star Five. Bagayoko will have to play to a similiar level as Siriman Kanoute did at the FIBA U19 World Cup 2019 when Mali shocked the world and reached the Final.
The Pivotal Game: Argentina v New Zealand
It's tempting to pick Mali v Serbia on the opening day - to see just how strong Mali are and if they can give fits to the Europeans - but the other first day contest between Argentina and New Zealand will be massively important.
Many of the key players from both of these teams faced off last summer at the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2024 and New Zealand won 89-81 - including All-Star Five selection Oscar Goodman. The Junior Tall Blacks went all the way to the Semi-Finals to make history by evening the country's best ever finish on the global stage along with New Zealand's fourth place at the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2002. This might be New Zealand's strongest junior side in history and with Germany likely Group B winners lurking in a Round of 16 match-up for the last placed finishers in Group A, the game will be crucial in avoiding that fate to start the knockout stage.
More
Looking for more about the teams in Group A, don't forget to check the pieces introducing the 16 participating nations as well as Parts 1 and 2 on why each team can win the tournament.
FIBA