ABIDJAN (Cote d'Ivoire) - Now that all 16 teams have played their first three games, it's fair to acknowledge that this 2027 Qatar World Cup qualifying campaign has been anything but business as usual, with new candidates taking unexpected leads.
In this article, we take a look at how the last games in Alexandria, Egypt, and Dakar, Senegal, reshaped the race to Qatar.
Here's what we concluded:
#16 - Uganda (-)
Uganda are one of the four teams yet to win a game in the tournament so far. They showed some promise in Alexandria, but their campaign could be highly compromised without productive inside players.
#15 - Madagascar (-)
Madagascar's tournament debut has been a real make-up call. On two occasions — against Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire — the islanders narrowly avoided conceding 100 points.
They played their most balanced game against the Democratic Republic of the Congo, losing 87–79 on the opening day.
#14 - Libya (+1)
Having seen teams with a relatively weaker grip than them, the Libyans may feel optimistic about the future of their qualifying campaign, especially if their key players are fit and they manage to recruit an import player, as they considered at the start of the tournament.
If they play some of the remaining games at home, it could mark the beginning of their revival.
#13 - Rwanda (-)
How much better can Rwanda get? This is probably the inevitable question about the Rwandan team, who came close to making history in Tunisia but ultimately lost to Nigeria.
The return of some of their key players is desperately needed.
#12 - DR Congo (-1)
A promising 87-79 win over Madagascar seemed to signal a strong start to the Leopards' World Cup qualifying campaign.
However, two heavy defeats to their main rivals in Group B came as a shock for a team that had emerged as one of the continent's rising contenders.
The Congolese scored fewer than 60 points against Côte d'Ivoire and Senegal, raising concerns about their scoring efficiency.
#11 - Nigeria (+1)
The D'Tigers of Nigeria seem to have made a habit of saving their best until last. This was evident during the 2025 AfroBasket qualifier, where they secured their spot in Angola with three consecutive victories after falling 0-3 in the first round.
Can they afford to do the same in the World Cup Qualifiers, where only five places are available for African teams for the 2027 tournament in Qatar?
Nigeria need to bounce back in the July qualifying campaign. They are currently 1-2 in the World Cup Qualifiers.
#10 - Egypt (-5)
Egypt missed a major opportunity to take a leading position in the Qualifiers when they lost two games at home last week.
What made Egypt's campaign poor was that they rarely posed a threat to their main rivals, Angola and Mali. Ehab Amin's early ejection in a must-win game against Angola was a major setback for Egypt and their fans.
#9 - Tunisia (+1)
We are watching closely to see if Tunisia will add an import player to their squad, which seems to lack scoring prowess and physicality in the paint.
If they succeed, it will be the second time the Eagles of Carthage have brought in a naturalised player since Michael Roll, the sharpshooter, helped them win the 2021 AfroBasket title. The new recruit will need to add real value if they are to stand a chance.
#8 - Cape Verde (+1)
For the Blue Sharks of Cape Verde, the saying seems to be that it's not how you start, but how you finish that matters.
Despite missing their most important player, Edy Tavares, they won two of their three November games, and are optimistic about the upcoming fixtures.
#7 - South Sudan (+1)
The Bright Stars of South Sudan know one thing all too well. Their rapid rise to the top of African basketball is under constant scrutiny.
Although they finished 2–1 in the opening qualifier window last November, there is a lot of work to be done if they are to qualify for the World Cup for a second consecutive time, particularly in terms of how they approach aggressive and combative opponents.
#6 - Cameroon (-2)
From Cameroon's 2-1 record in the opening qualifier window, we learned that this team can do much better and are a legitimate contender for one of the five World Cup places for African teams.
With a few more additions, especially to their offensive play, they can achieve great things.
#5 - Senegal (-2)
The reason for Senegal's unpredictability when playing at home remains a huge mystery.
Even when they last won the AfroBasket on home soil in 1997, the Teranga Lions lost one of their six games, as the history books show.
Last week, Senegal opened their World Cup qualifying campaign with a disappointing 90–80 loss to Côte d'Ivoire, but bounced back with two straight wins under Brancou Badio, who missed the opening game.
If Senegal are to qualify for the World Cup for the first time since 2019, consistency is really needed.
#4 - Angola (-2)
Angola may have left Alexandria wondering what went wrong after their 10-game winning streak, which had lasted since February 2025 during the AfroBasket Qualifiers, came to an abrupt end.
The simple explanation for Angola's 80–79 loss to Mali in their final game in Alexandria last week is that the Malians were more aggressive and never gave up even when they found themselves trailing by 12 points.
Angola struggled to cope with their opponents' physicality, and Mali were keen to show that their loss to Angola in the 2025 AfroBasket final was in the past.
#3 - Cote d'Ivoire (+4)
A 3-0 start to their World Cup qualifying campaign could not be more encouraging for Côte d'Ivoire, a team that began the 2023 World Cup Qualifiers with nine consecutive victories before securing their place at the East Asia World Cup with a 10-2 win.
Côte d'Ivoire showed no mercy to Senegal, DR Congo and Madagascar. They currently top the table with an average of 95 points per game.
#2 - Guinea (-1)
The main takeaway from Guinea's 3–0 win–loss record in the opening round of the 2027 World Cup Qualifiers in November is that they are here to stay, with a brighter future than ever before.
They convincingly beat hosts Tunisia, Nigeria and Rwanda, setting themselves up for a promising campaign.
Although they dropped to second in the power rankings, Guinea remain legitimate contenders for one of the five places at the 2027 Qatar World Cup.
#1 - Mali (+5)
Mali's rise to the top of this power ranking may have come as a surprise to some, but a thorough examination of their results over the last 24 months shows a team that has made continuous progress.
Angola, whom they beat 80–79 in a rematch of the 2025 AfroBasket final, were just one of the top five African teams they have beaten in the last 12 months.
Other victims of Mali's success included South Sudan during the AfroBasket qualifiers, and Senegal and Côte d'Ivoire on the way to their first-ever AfroBasket final.
Last week, Mali beat both hosts Egypt and the reigning African champions Angola, despite being without their star player, Aliou Diarra.
DISCLAIMER: The Power Rankings are completely subjective and in no way represent an official or precise ranking system. All comments reflect the author’s opinions.
FIBA