Europe a good bet to continue OQT dominance

VALENCIA (Jeff Taylor's Eurovision) - Don't bet against a European sweep of July's FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments (OQTs). The Summer Games will be staged in Rio de Janeiro from 6-21 August and after this past week's draws for the OQTs, there is ample cause to expect teams from the old continent to prevail in each.

Unlike the past two OQTs in Athens (2008) and Caracas (2012), this year has not just a 12-team OQT but three six-team OQTs. Eight of the 18 teams that will feature at the three OQTs are European.

Two of those European sides, Italy and Serbia, are the host nations of OQTs. The Philippines will stage the other.

Four of the OQT teams (France, Serbia, Turkey and Greece) are in the top 10 of the FIBA World Rankings.

Serbia, the runners-up at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup to the United States, have the look of near certainties after a draw this week which left them in Group A of the Belgrade OQT with Angola and Puerto Rico. Latvia and the Czech Republic in Group B will have good teams. It's hard to imagine any of these sides, including Group B's other team, Japan, denying Serbia a spot in the Olympics.

The biggest hurdle for Serbia? They have to avoid becoming overconfident. "We should not be relaxed," Serbia coach Aleksander Djordjevic warned.

We know that we are favorites. It is certain that against us, all the teams will try to play at the highest level and the only thing we cannot do is underestimate the teams with us in the group, neither Czech Republic, nor Japan, nor Angola nor Latvia, nor Puerto Rico. - Djordjevic

If the Serbians take their foot off the pedal against the Czech Republic and their dynamic duo of Jan Vesely and Tomas Satoransky, arguably the most exciting one-two punch in European basketball, things could get interesting. The two players had terrific performances at the EuroBasket and do make the Czech side dangerous.

What about the potential impact of Kristaps Porzingis on Latvia, a player that has been nothing short of sensational as a rookie with the New York Knicks? I think the Serbians would hound him all over the court and out of the game if he were to play for his national side and the teams were to meet in Belgrade.

The other venues are intriguing. At the Turin OQT, an Italy v Greece showdown with Olympic qualification at stake looks to be on the cards. Greece are in Group A with Mexico and Iran and Italy are in Group B with Tunisia and an always unpredictable Croatia.

Greece have talent, so forget the doom and gloom following the international retirement of Vasilis Spanoulis after last year's EuroBasket. With Nick Calathes and Kostas Sloukas in the backcourt, Kostas Koufos and Georgios Printezis in the frontcourt and Giannis Antetokounmpo all over the court, this is a fabulous five.

What this team has to do is be mentally strong when the going gets tough. For the past four years, Greece have cruised through the early parts of events and then struggled in money time. In their two tournaments under coach Fotis Katsikaris, Greece have gone unbeaten in the Group Phases but failed in the knockout round.

Italy came within a made basket at the end of regulation of beating Lithuania in last year's EuroBasket Quarter-Finals. With plenty of time to get a shot off, Alessandro Gentile dribbled himself into trouble and the Azzurri failed to get a good look at the rim. Lithuania then won in overtime.

If a full-strength Italy and a full-strength Greece reach the Final, who will win? Remember, Italy should have Danilo Gallinari, Marco Belinelli, Andrea Bargnani, Gigi Datome and Gentile. And they will also have the best coach in the tournament, Ettore Messina.

Here is why you like Italy to win that game. First, they will be at home in Turin. Second, Messina will pull the right strings. I could see this happening, however, Croatia finishing second in Group B behind Italy and upsetting Greece in the Semi-Final, and then Italy beating Croatia to reach the Olympics. Croatia are the great unknown in Europe. It's hard to know if they will bring their best game.

As for the European teams in the Philippines OQT, first up is France. If they have Rudy Gobert, Nicolas Batum, Nando de Colo, Tony Parker, Boris Diaw, Evan Fournier and Joffrey Laurvergne, can any side beat them? If they play well, France can not only reach Rio de Janeiro but get to the podium. It's a team that can challenge for gold. Remember last year?

France would already like their chances of winning games against the teams in the Olympic field already. They are the USA, Brazil, Spain, Lithuania, Australia, Venezuela, Argentina, China and Nigeria. As for France in the Manila OQT, they are in Group B with New Zealand and the Philippines.

France had better hit the court breathing fire on opening day against the Filipinos or they could have problems. New Zealand certainly can't be overlooked. The Tall Blacks beat France at the 2010 FIBA Basketball World Cup.

I have very bad memories of New Zealand ... - France coach Vincent Collet

New Zealand beat Vincent Collet's (FRA) France in 2010

Canada v Turkey in Group A will be a good game. If Omer Asik plays for Turkey, they will be a completely different team to the one that played last year. Asik is the rim-protector for the Twelve Giant Men. He even gave the USA a hard time when the teams met at the 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup.

Omer Asik (TUR) is a tower of power

Canada? The main thing about this super-talented team that coach Jay Triano keeps talking about is the need for the players to gain experience in international basketball. They came within an eyelash of qualifying last year at the FIBA Americas Championship but lost to a Venezuela team, one that had no NBA players, at the death in the Semi-Finals.

Turkey will harbor serious notions of winning the OQT. Ergin Ataman was happy to end up in the Manila OQT, where his team will also play Senegal in Group A. If France are the favorites, I still envision them having to win some very hard games to reach Rio. 

France won their meeting last year in Lille at the EuroBasket, but Turkey will be ready if they square off in a do-or-die, all-European clash for Olympic qualification. Gobert v Asik? Guler v De Colo? Preldzic v Batum? Ataman v Collet? All bets are off.

Jeff Taylor

FIBA

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