Eurobasket of surprises

Paris (The Monday International Show) - The first round of the strongest Eurobasket of all time is over and some surprising things have already occurred.

For example, in Group C who could have predicted that Croatia would be already eliminated, that Finland would qualify for the second round with F.Y.R. of Macedonia, and that the latter would dominate Greece for first place!

Group C was wide open from the start and it was only fitting that the third qualifier would squeak through on a three-way point differentiel. Unreal! When I commentate these games on TV I always insist that the final margin is almost as important as the result because when you base the standings on so few games, the point differential is often decisive.

The equally wide open Group D was another case in point, where Georgia sneaked through despite losing its last game to Bulgaria. If point differential is hard to explain to casual basketbal fans, it does make EVERY possession important.

In the second round, Russia and Slovenia should logically emerge as quarter-finalists, led by their NBA stars, Andrei Kirilenko and Goran Dragic. Kiri is dominating the stat sheet for the top notch Russian team that has recuperated its best players and wants a repeat of their amazing 2007 finish. Dragic can't buy a three point shot but is still playing a good all-around game while being significantly helped by Erazem Lorbek the leading scorer and rebounder for a Slovenian team that only lost by one point to powerful Russia. F.Y.R. of Macedonia and Greece should join them in the quarters and the second tour will be themed, in my opinion, by teams jockeying for position in order to avoid Spain in the quarter-finals!

The Spanish demonstration vs. Lithuania and its fans was absolutely incredible. Spain was younger, quicker, and more intense from the opening tip behind a Juanca Navarro festival and the Lithuanians looked like they were running in mud. When you added up the speed and shooting of the outside players with the size and technique of the inside trio of NBA stars, Spain looked unbeatable. Ibaka's second half was so good that coach Scariolo decide he could let Pau Gasol rest his ankle the next day against a resuscitated Turkish team,another surprise entrant who was saved by Great Britain beating Poland the last day. Without Pau and worn out by the short turnaround after the emotional Lithuania win 18 hours earlier, Spain looked human again missing open shots and only scoring TWO points in the fourth quarter, proving that one must be doubly careful vs. a team that dodged elimination miraculously! Maybe Spain got a little overconfident, something they will want to avoid in the second round when they play Germany, Serbia and France!

For me, it is much less clear which teams will qualify for the quarters out of Group E compared to Group F, even though France starts out in the best position after going 5-0 in the first round behind their brillant MVP candidate, Tony Parker and his other NBA pals, Boris Diaw, Nicolas Batum, Joakim Noah etc. France will want to immediately punch its ticket for the quarters vs. Turkey on wednesday in a high pressure battle which arrives a bit rapidly for a tired and beaten up BUT euphoric French squad playing its best basketball since 2005 (bronze medal in Belgrade). The France-Serbia matchup was the best played game(they saved the best for last!) of the first round by far with lots of points,excellent execution,suspense, and spectacular action and it only seemed fitting that the result should be decided on an unlucky miss from close range after Serbia rained in eleven amazing three-pointers! Both teams deserved to win this one but the turning point was when Milos Teodosic was eliminated for five fouls at the end of regulation on a flagrant foul he should have avoided!

For once, France was just as mentally tough and determined as the Serbs which is a good sign for what lies ahead for them. In my opinion, they will qualify with Spain, Serbia and Lithuania but it won't be easy for any of them! What do you think?