EuroBasket favorites and underdogs

PARIS (George Eddy's International Show) - Everyone seems to agree that Greece, Spain and France are the pre-tournament favorites concerning the upcoming 2013 Eurobasket in Slovenia.

After watching Greece dominate France in the second half of their preparation match in beautiful Strasbourg yesterday, I agree with French coach Vincent Collet that Greece is farther along in their preparation than France, thanks to a deep roster, aggressive defense and wonderful passing and shooting. All this, despite adapting to a new Italian coach, Andrea Trincheri, who worked wonders in Cantu with his positive approach and ability to convince players to do things together.

The Greek players reacted well to this optimistic method and seem under less pressure compared to the recent past, despite the absence of Euroleague MVP, Vassilis Spanoulis, who was out with back spasms.

NBA stars Tony Parker and Nicolas Batum only scored two points each as the Greek defense tactically put pressure on the guards and wings and invited the French big men to try and score. Which they did, but wasn't enough to beat Greece who makes an art out of the "extra-extra" pass to set up magnificently their top notch three-point shooters all over the court.

France will need to take a page out of the Greek playbook and defend with more intensity to counter their excellent ball movement but also search for some fluidity in their own passing game.

I was particularly impressed by X-generation star Kostas Papanikolao who will leave Olympiakos for a mega-contract in Barcelona next season. His mobility at 2.06m is incredible because he has the fundamentals and dribble drive of a scoring guard, with the height of a power forward similar to a Kevin Durant at the NBA level.

After this defeat, France knows what it needs to work on before playing Spain twice in the next two weeks. France also knows the importance of finishing first or second after the second round in Slovenia in order to avoid Greece or Spain in the decisive quarter-finals! Greece and Spain are probably telling themselves the same thing concerning France because Parker and Batum won't score only two points very often!

I also saw Croatia and Germany play this past weekend in Strasbourg and both teams seem to have limited rotations coming from the bench, which will put added pressure and fatigue on their starters.

Bojan Bogdanovic, future Brooklyn Net, who scored 25 points against the tough Greek defense, is Croatia's offensive leader, along with Roko Ukic. Barcelona's top center Ante Tomic will have to pick up speed in the upcoming weeks in order for Croatia to avoid disappointing their numerous fans who will come and support them in Slovenia. They will be an underdog in Group C behind Spain and Slovenia but will have their chances against the other contenders for the third qualifying spot.

Same thing for a very young German team in Group A, the weakest first round group, where France should win all their games but it will be a toss-up between the other five teams for the two remaining spots to qualify for the second round.

France will start running into some difficulty when Group A crosses paths with the mega-strong Group B in the second round. I see France and three Group B teams moving into the quarter-finals. Watch out for Lithuania with its young and talented NBA big men, Jonas Valanciunas (Toronto) and Donatas Motiejunas(Houston). They should be a handful especially now that Nikola Pekovic has pulled himself out of the Montenegro team because of his NBA contract situation.

In Group D look for Greece and Turkey to qualify with the third spot a toss-up between Italy and Russia.

Of course, surprises can and will happen, as The Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia (MKD) proved two years ago in Lithuania, but in the end I see the usual suspects (or favourites) on the podium. The question will be, in which order?

 

George Eddy

FIBA

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