Draft and lockout

PARIS (The Monday International Show) - It was supposed to be an historically weak draft and only time will tell which teams made horrible decisions with high draft picks and which teams found diamonds in the rough with lower picks as San Antonio has become famous for over the years.

For American fans, the big question is whether NCAA superstar Jimmer Fredette can do better than Orlando's JJ Redick or Charlotte's bust Adam Morrison who had about the same profile coming out of college with reputations as big scorers. From an international standpoint, Fredette's case is of little interest since many non-American basketball specialists consider the NCAA basketball level of play extremely overrated!

On the other hand, the international community did notice that seven of the first 25 players chosen in the draft were non-Americans and more importantly four of the top 10! This can be explained by the weakening of the US talent pool over the years - the best players only stay in school for one year - as well as increased respect for the way international clubs develop players around the world.

There is also a permanent research for quality tall players from Europe or Africa, notably, which explains a lot of the high draft picks for international players.

Let's give a special mention to Lithuania, a country like Montenegro in the women's Eurobasket tournament, which squeezes the utmost talent out of a very small population! This, though, was not a good draft for France which had been a big producer of young talent for the NBA over the last decade.

Let's move on to the lockout situation which has the whole NBA planet sitting on pins and needles out of fear of losing a season or games or salaries once the CBA (Collective Bargaining Agreement) runs out at the end of June.

Let me try and simplify for you a complex negotiation process. In the end, the owners need a deal that will permit all teams to make some kind of a profit by reducing the percentage of revenues dedicated to players' salaries but also by better sharing local TV revenues between big market and small market teams to make for a more level playing field.

There will certainly be a reduction in the length of guaranteed contracts with more optional years non-guaranteed to avoid the costly contract mistakes teams have made in the last decade and a gradual move over the coming years towards a hard salary cap with less exceptions compared to today's CBA.

I doubt the players union will accept a 10-year deal. In this rapidly changing world economic context, a five-year deal seems more likely. The owners could reduce fines and increase pension payments to players to lessen the impact of the bitter pill the players will eventually be required to swallow. I think a 20 percent rollback in players' salaries will probably be close to the final compromise.

An essential point will be a change in mentality where the players will negotiate from a stronger position as future partners of the owners in a global NBA enterprise instead of the conflictual owner-employee relationship of the present.

An interesting parallel can be drawn with the situation concerning labor relations in Germany where an intelligent  partnership between companies and unions has permitted that country to turn its economy around faster than its European neighbors.

For the NBA, we will get a better feel for the outcome of these negotiations at several signpost dates starting with the expiration of the current CBA.

If a deal is not hammered out, the next important date will be the start of the season at the end of October when players concretely start losing paychecks and teams are blocked by forced inactivity!

Since I love covering the NBA, my fingers are crossed that we won't have to reach that extreme which everyone agrees would be detrimental to the image of the league and its players!

George Eddy