Could Team USA miss the Beijing Olympics?

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Only once in the history of the summer Olympics has there been a basketball tournament without team USA competing, and that was when the Americans boycotted the Olympics altogether.

FAN NEWS (Greg Varkonyi, Sportingo) - The 2008 Olympics might be the first to feature a basketball tournament for which the US was unable to qualify.

Thanks to Spain winning the world championships, Europe are guaranteed to have at least three representatives at next year’s Games in Beijing as the winners and runners-up of the European Championships are also guaranteed a berth.

China, as the host country will be there in 2008, and so will one more Asian team by virtue of winning the Asian championships. The Americas are only guaranteed two spots, as the winners and runner-up of this year’s Americas championships in Las Vegas will receive berths to the Olympic tournament.

Before you think the US is guaranteed a spot in the finals of this qualifying event, think again. Argentina, Brazil and Puerto Rico have all had good showings in past FIBA tournaments against the US’s selection of NBA players, and upstarts like Uruguay, if taken lightly, could cause quite a stir in Las Vegas. While no team matches up favorably to Team USA's talent (although Argentina has clearly become a force in international basketball), it is cohesion and court awareness that will decide the outcome of most games.

USA squads in the past have been at a disadvantage in international play, as the games use FIBA rules, which NBA stars have found tough to get used to. Established, fundamentally sound basketball stars like Tim Duncan have found it difficult to adjust to the more tightly called, less physical international matches. However, even with the court being slightly tilted against them this way, Team USA is still expected to not only win an Olympic berth in Las Vegas, but to win the tournament itself. There are, however, teams that might have a different final rankings in mind.

Argentina is the main competition for the hosts. Considering recent performances, one might even argue that they should be favorites to win. With a healthy dose of NBA stars and role-players along with established players from Europe, the Argentines boast a very strong, cohesive squad. Naturally, everything starts with the energy player Manu Ginobili. His style has gotten him many fans, even NBA legends like Charles Barkley and Michael Jordan have spoken highly of him. Along with Andres Nocioni (Chicago Bulls) and Fabricio Oberto (Manu’s teammate on the Spurs) the NBA power is there. One must also mention Luis Scola, who for years now has been courted by the NBA to come stateside as he has remained in the Spanish ACBL, dominating the league at the forward spot.

Brazil is starting to shape up nicely. Hopefully they will have every one of their NBA trio ready and able to play. The Denver Nuggets’ Nene (listed on FIBA’s sites by his real name Maybner Rodney Hilario) has recently made himself eligible for the tournament. Brazil is hoping to team up Denver’s bruiser power forward with hustle guy Anderson Varejao (Cleveland Cavaliers) and the undisputed fastest player of the NBA, Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix Suns). Brazil also boasts fringe NBA center Rafael Araujo, who has the type of game that is better suited for FIBA’s rules. Tiago Splitter of the ACBL’s Tau Vitoria is an NBA level talent, who much like Argentina’s Scola has so far resisted the luring of NBA teams.

Puerto Rico’s national team has been in a slump recently. They are, however, one of the teams the US has always had a problem matching up against. The problem can mostly be caused by Carlos Arroyo, the point guard of the Orlando Magic. Arroyo is known to have his best international outings against Team USA. This is not a one-man show, however. Most of the squad is made up of players with prior NCAA basketball experience. Players like Peter John Ramos, Daniel Santiago, Angelo Reyes have even had a chance to try themselves out against NBA talents as they have previously occupied roster spots in the league. Mystery man Ricardo Sanchez Rosa has been pointed out as one of the talents to watch at the tournament. He’s a seven-foot 20-year-old forward. If he has a nice outing, clubs will definitely be calling him as everybody knows: “You cannot teach height!”

Uruguay has recently beaten Argentina twice in exhibition games. Although the Argentines were without some of their bigger stars this is still a warning sign that this team is not to be taken lightly. They will probably go only as far as their best player, the Atlanta Hawks’ Esteban Batista will take them. Considering Batista’s recent form (26 points and 16 rebounds against Argentina in their second meeting) they could surprise quite a few teams in Las Vegas.

The remaining teams have a way to go to be able to get to the medal rounds. Venezuela has always been a well coached unit, and with Victor Salazar having taken his squad to the third spot in the 2005 competition they certainly can not be counted out. Alas, with Olympic qualifying being in the bag every team will field its strongest line-up, something that was not the case in 2005.

Canada could be worthy of consideration if two-time MVP Steve Nash, NBA centers Jamaal Magloire and Samuel Delembert were to decide to join the squad. I’m expecting them to make a run rather at the 2008 Olympic qualifying tournament where the field will be substantially more manageable.

Panama is also an intriguing team. With the experienced and highly-talented trio of Ruben Douglas, Ruben Garces, and Ed Cota they could make some noise. Alas, with such a strong field it would be a huge surprise if they were to reach the medal rounds.

The Virgin Islands had a good showing last year at the Centrobasket Men’s Championship where they finished second, ahead of Puerto Rico and Mexico. Keep an eye out for Frank Roderick Elegar, the 21- year-old who used last year as his coming out party within the team.

Mexico seems to have been able to convince UCLA’s Lorenzo Matta to join the squad. Coach Nolan Richardson is, however, unwilling to discuss the status of NBA players Eduardo Najera and Earl Watson. With the two NBA players on the roster, Mexico can be a force to reckon with, without them they are a talented team, but one unable to beat the best in this tournament. The way Richardson refuses to answer questions about his stars has me believing that both will be no-shows at Vegas.

So is there any imaginable way that Team USA manages to miss out on the top two spots? Of course there is. We have seen it in the past that the gap between other countries and the USA has closed so much that the best teams can beat the NBA’s select in a game played under FIBA rules. This only has to happen twice for the home team and then panic will set in.

If, however, you were to ask: Is it fathomable that the US could miss the 2008 Olympic tournament? I’d say it is not impossible, but it is highly unlikely. You see, they would have to finish lower than fifth in Las Vegas to not get an invite to next year’s qualification tournament, which will determine the final three berths. The top three teams from there will go to the Olympics, and you clearly do not expect the USA to flop so many times, especially since if they do not win an outright berth in Vegas, the alarm bells will sound, and I’m sure the top stars will be lining up for a roster spot to save USA Basketball.


* This article is written by a basketball fan and is based on personnal opinions that does not reflect the views of FIBA. Fan articles are part of the Sportingo Network and are brought to you for discussion & opinion matters.