Game of the week - San Pablo Burgos vs AEK

MIES (Switzerland) - Teams have already started booking their places in the Play-Offs. Four teams to be precise; Iberostar Tenerife, ERA Nymburk, JDA Dijon, and Turk Telekom. Gameday 12 will offer more teams the chance to secure an early spot in the knock-outs. One of those teams is the 2018 Champions AEK.

Standing in the way of The Queen's final required win this Wednesday is newcomers San Pablo Burgos. For Burgos, a win puts them on the same record as AEK and in full control of their own fate, a loss keeps them in a tough contest for 3rd and 4th with Anwil and RASTA Vechta. The Regular Season is coming to a close and the stakes get higher and higher with each round.

San Pablo Burgos vs AEK

The last time these teams met was in Athens in early November. As is always the case in every basketball season, a very short period of time already feels like a decade ago. The game was decided by 8 points in AEK's favor with Keith Langford in his bag the entire game. He put up a ridiculous 30 points, 4 rebounds and 4 assists on 61% shooting overall, 56% from deep and 100% from the line.  

 

AEK needed Langford to be in the scoring mood that game as Burgos refused to go away. Every time AEK opened up a lead of 10 points or more, a different player in purple stepped up to keep the game in reach. Although the likes of McFadden and Vitor Benite had poor shooting nights, it was telling that coach Pennaroya found important contributions from Bruno Fitipaldo and Ferran Bassas. What they didn't find was a match up to slow down Langford or Howard Sant-Roos.

No question Burgos will again be puzzling over ways to slow down AEK's #5 but in truth, this game may also be equally impacted by both team's roster changes since November. For Burgos, Goran Huksic has been missing most of the season and left behind a presence inside but also an important pivot for offensive creation. We probably don't need to tell you about the roster changes for AEK.

If you didn't feel the shockwaves created by Howard Sant-Roos leaving for greener pastures(pun intended) in Russia, you must have been living under a rock if you missed the news of Nikos Zisis returning to where it all started. The injury to Nikos Gkikas maybe couldn't have come at a worse time for AEK but the arrival of club legend and Lord of the Rings Nikos Zisis, certainly couldn't have come at a better time. 

Statistics

The important thing to consider when looking at statistics to guide the way you watch this game is that the BCL is a low volume league. The travel schedules can no doubt be brutal but in context, a 14 game Regular Season is really a small sample size.  Especially at the start of the season, a very good or bad performance can give a team's statistical profile a very different slant. And even as we approach Gameday 12, the way that AEK plays with Nikos Zisis running the show in the place of Nikos Gkikas and Howard Sant-Roos could completely change the view from the box score. 

Somethings will likely stay very similar due to the players that remain i.e., with Langford and Ray AEK have players that can and often do create their own shot. For that reason, the difference between their Assist Percentage of 59% and Burgos' at 70.5% (3rd in the BCL) is a reasonably safe predictor for the style of basketball you will see from both teams. It's also important to point out that a higher Assist Percentage doesn't necessarily mean better team basketball. Getting the ball to Langford in the areas he likes to work carries the same team-first mentality as an extra pass for a Vitor Benite corner 3, it's really just about getting the best shot.

When it comes to getting the best shot, these two teams are almost identical for shooting efficiency. AEK (54%) and Burgos (54.5%) are both among the BCL's best teams for Effective Field Goal Percentage. For Burgos their advantage comes on the glass. Coach Penarroya's squad pull down 37% of their own misses and lead the league in Offensive Rebounding Percentage. Not only do they lead the league this year but they are a clear 3 percentage points better than any team in the previous seasons. AEK's advantage comes in transition and their ability to get in the passing lanes. The Queen steals the ball on 13.5% of their opponent's possessions and translates those steals into 13.1 points per game on the fastbreak. Continuing to find those steals and transition points without the long-limbed Cuban Sant-Roos will be the challenge for Coach Papatheodorou. 

Key Men

San Pablo Burgos - Jasiel Rivero

There will be at least one man flying the Cuban flag in this game and Jasiel Rivero has been flying it throughout January. Against Joventut on the weekend,  Burgos' combo-big put up 15 points and 7 rebounds. Rivero didn't play the last time these teams faced each other and could have easily made up the 8 points difference between them. His mobility and hustle will cause AEK to make some tough decisions when it comes to matchups and trying to keep him off the offensive glass.

 

AEK - Kendrick Ray

There are much more obvious choices for AEK's potential game-winner and if they do win the game Keith Langford will almost certainly finish as top scorer but with Zisis replacing Gkikas' playmaking, there is still a huge gap to filled in terms of the assists provided by Sant-Roos. We know Kendrick Ray is talented but we just haven't seen him in a situation where his team has really needed him to be yet this season. With Langford and Sant-Roos the ball going to Ray was never a priority.

With AEK's last transfer in the BCL going to Nikos Zisis spot in the roster there are meaningful minutes and important touches for Ray in this team now. At points, there have been rumbles about Ray wanting to leave. A big performance on the road in a tough environment could be the difference between AEK getting qualification wrapped up early and could also be the difference-maker in  AEK's BCL season moving forward.