MUNICH (Germany) - We're heading into crunch time at the 40th edition of FIBA Women's EuroBasket and ahead of the Quarter-Finals, it's time for us to press refresh on the Smart Power Rankings.
It's also the time to predict who's likely to land on the podium and who might take tickets to the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026 Qualifying Tournaments.
Taking into account the results and performances in the group phase games, as well as the all-important tournament bracket here's how our Expert Panel are calling it.
1. Belgium (-)
Tournament Record: 3-0 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 6th
They may have a different coach masterminding their progress in the competition, but so far Mike Thibault must be happy with the progress of the unbeaten Cats. They still look like the team to beat as the successful formula from 2023 has not had to change and especially with every big player in situ. Their starting five remains as good, if not better than any other in terms of talent, experience and chemistry. When they hit top gear, they're hard to live with.
With so many players able to deliver when it matters most, they will have to drop off considerably to lose - they also look like they're having fun. Perhaps a caveat is how much they rely on the brilliant Emma Meesseman. But it's not a headache, just smallprint to an otherwise glowing report and one pointing them in direction of a title repeat.
2. France (-)
Tournament Record: 3-0 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 3rd
It's been a case of France trying to make 'in-tournament' adjustments with some of their biggest guns absent for this edition and that maybe showed in the opening game against Türkiye when they almost fell short. But the way they came up clutch down the stretch and how they have been dominant since then is testament to this group of players and coaching staff. Streets ahead of both Greece and Switzerland, bigger tests are now incoming.
Anything Valeriane Ayayi touches right now seems to turn to gold and Janelle Salaun is on absolute fire. Other players have caught the eye too, with the one big question probably being whether they have the quality and options in the backcourt to win it all for the first time in 16 years. But a return to Final action looks very possible!
3. Spain (-)
Tournament Record: 3-0 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 5th
They were made to sweat all the way in the overtime success against Sweden which might just have questions being asked about whether they are truly podium worthy. However, considering there is a change of generations happening in front of our eyes, the general togetherness and cohesion of Spain is still impressive. The vets like Alba Torrens and Mariona Ortiz are doing their thing, while the rising stars look capable of playing key roles too.
It is defensively where Spain have really looked like they could be ready to repeat with another podium step. Their smothering ball pressure (tournament steals leaders) intensity and blocking of shots in crunch moments have been vital. As has having an expert navigator like Miguel Mendez at the helm to see them through the testing moments.
4. Türkiye (+5)
Tournament Record: 2-1 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 17th
Türkiye could lay claim to having been both the biggest surprise (in a positive sense) and also the most impressive team so far. With a little more luck they could be unbeaten and only just missed out on taking the prized scalp of France. Their display against Greece was exceptional and there is an overwhelming sense that they have played their best basketball since the glory days of more than a decade ago when they made consecutive podiums.
The focus and execution of clutch plays time and time again has been outstanding. They're shooting a blistering 41 percent from the arc. The guard quartet of Alperi Onar, Sevgi Uzun, Olcay Cakir and Goksen Fitik have all showed their teeth and Teaira McCowan is a monumental centerpiece under the basket with Elif Bayram and Tilbe Senyurek also impressing. Opportunity knocks and Ekrem Memnun deserves big praise so far.
5. Italy (-1)
Tournament Record: 3-0 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 16th
It would be a bit much to offer an apology to the entire Italian nation, but we feel the frustration of being moved down a spot when having went unbeaten in Bologna. But there is some logic - if that is even a thing in the very unpredictable world of women's hoops! Italy did fantastic, but there is no denying it was a roller-coaster and they could have lost to Slovenia - maybe even to Serbia too. They were on a knife edge and could have gone either way.
To their massive credit, Italy got the job done. But there has been a huge reliance (maybe an over-reliance) on Cecilia Zandalasini and it's a big responsibility to carry - especially with no home court or home support now. Yet a top five finish would be super and they have big positives as a team - not least taking excellent care of the ball.
6. Czechia (+1)
Tournament Record: 2-1 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 18th
It's time to come clean. It's proving tough to figure out just how much potential Czechia have to go at least one more step having beaten two struggling teams in Montenegro and Portugal before losing to the classy title holders Belgium by double-digits. That is well and truly spanning both ends of the spectrum at this year's edition. One thing is certain, they gave the fans in Brno enough to be happy with and made their country proud co-hosts.
They've shown great ball movement and a strong desire to play team basketball. Julia Reisingerova, Eliska Hamzova, Veronika Vorackova and Emma Cechova have still managed to shine of course, but collectively they have looked really solid. The one great thing for Czechia is that if they don't challenge for the podium, the pressure is off as they have already qualified for the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2026 Qualifying Tournaments.
7. Lithuania (+4)
Tournament Record: 2-1 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 45th
It didn't take long for Lithuania to tear up Volume 3 of the Smart Power Rankings and throw it in the trash. They have thrived on proving the so-called experts wrong. Having waited since 2015 to hit the court, they firstly took down a Slovenia team predicted to do exciting things and then top-seeded Serbia. The formula for success has at least been more predictable.
As anticipated, Juste Jocyte and Laura Juskaite have provided the main thrust of the campaign so far with nice contributions, while Egle Sventoraite has done a great job behind their headline duo. Defense has been the team's foundation for success, but they need to find their range from downtown having made just 10 of 44 attempts. Now they have a chance to really put themselves back on the map, but will have to shift up another gear to do so.
8. Germany (-2)
Tournament Record: 2-1 FIBA World Ranking presented by Nike: 13th
There are a lot of positives already from this Germany campaign after fears they might not get out of the group were set aside thanks to nice wins against Sweden and Great Britain. The beauty of some big-hitters not being available is that other ballers have stepped up, not least Frieda Buhner who has been terrific and it bodes so well for the future - while other rising stars like Emily Bessoir have also looked capable of being core roster members.
Already qualified as FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup hosts, it feels a medal or their best ever finish at the FIBA Women's EuroBasket (if they claim 5th spot or better), would now be a bonus. With great crowds, two wins and nice displays banked, they have already secured all-important momentum heading into a huge 2026 for them. *The Power Rankings are out together by our Expert Panel. They are entirely subjective and are in no way a true, accurate ranking system. All comments are purely those of the author.