JEDDAH (Saudi Arabia) – The group stage didn’t quite go according to plan for either side, but the dream of FIBA Asia Cup glory is still alive. Japan and Lebanon entered the tournament with loaded rosters and plenty of momentum, only to find themselves fighting for survival in the Qualification to Quarter-Finals round.
Now, with a Quarter-Finals date with New Zealand on the line, there’s no room for error. For Lebanon, last editions's runners-up, this is about proving that their 2022 magic wasn’t a one-off. For Japan, it’s about making the Quarter-Finals in consecutive editions for the first time since 2005 and 2007, a milestone that would reflect the strides they’ve made in recent years.
Key matchup: Keisei Tominaga vs Karim Zeinoun
Tominaga has been one of the most dangerous scorers in Jeddah, ranking among the tournament leaders in three-pointers made at 3.7 per game. His ability to heat up from anywhere will keep Lebanon’s defense on high alert. That’s where Zeinoun comes in. While his own scoring numbers haven’t been eye-popping, his task will be to make life as difficult as possible for Japan’s sharpshooter. If Zeinoun and Lebanon’s guards can disrupt Tominaga’s rhythm, the Cedars will have a fighting chance.
X-Factor: Dedric Lawson
Lebanon brought Lawson in expecting major production in the paint, but outside of his 12-point, 7-rebound game against Qatar, he’s been relatively quiet. That won’t cut it against Japan’s frontcourt anchor Joshua Hawkinson, who currently leads the tournament in both rebounding and double-doubles. If Lawson can match Hawkinson’s energy and impact on both ends, Lebanon’s offense will open up in ways it hasn’t so far.
Stats don’t lie
Discipline could decide this one. Lebanon average 19 fouls per game, while Japan lead the entire field in free-throw accuracy at 82.7%. Give the Akatsuki Japan too many freebies, and they’ll make you pay. At the same time, Lebanon lead the Asia Cup in steals (8.7 per game), so they can’t afford to back off defensively either. Coach Miodrag Perisic’s biggest challenge will be getting his team to play aggressive yet controlled defense.
Previous Asia Cup meetings
History favors Lebanon, who own a 4-1 head-to-head record against Japan in the Asia Cup. The Cedars’ victories came in 2001 (Shanghai), 2003 (Harbin), 2005 (Doha) and 2011 (Wuhan), while Japan’s lone win came in 2007 (Tokushima). But with Japan ranked higher today and carrying a deeper roster, this might be their best chance in years to flip the script.
One thing’s for certain: by Tuesday night in Jeddah, one contender’s ambitions will live on, and the other’s will be heading home.
FIBA