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26 July, 2021
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12 Diana Taurasi (USA)
07/01/2021
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Experts make their early picks: Can anybody challenge USA and who is going to light it up?

MIES (Switzerland) - It's more than six months away, but we're still challenging our expert panel to gaze into the future and tell us how things might go down at the Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament. 

If they're lucky, we might give them another opportunity to adjust their thoughts closer to the event, but for now they must be bold and show some courage with plenty of time still to run before things tip-off in the Japanese capital.

Shona Thoburn is an ex Olympian with Canada, an Assistant Coach for Basket Landes in EuroLeague Women, as well as providing color commentary at flagship FIBA events. Meanwhile FIBA writer Sajjatam Kulsomboon is proudly flying the flag for his region and basketball in Asia. Finally, Paul Nilsen is truly feeling the pressure right now as FIBA's global women's basketball specialist, but this is about having some fun he tells us.

Here is how they answered our hot topics as the countdown to Tokyo continues.

Which player are you most looking forward to seeing play in Tokyo?

Shona Thoburn: I am torn between Emma Meesseman from Belgium and Nako Motohashi from Japan. Meesseman is arguably one of the best players in the women’s game at the moment. She has WNBA Finals MVP to her name to go along with multiple EuroLeague Women titles, as well as being in the All-Star Five at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in 2018. Now fans will watch her play in her first Olympics and show the world what she can do. On the other hand and maybe a little less known for those who don’t follow women’s basketball religiously is Motohashi. She led Japan to gold at the FIBA Women's Asia Cup 2019, while also earning tournament MVP. She is such an exciting point guard who can really do it all and I imagine playing on home soil wiLL just give her that much more incentive to perform on the biggest stage.

Paul Nilsen: It would be easier to make a list of the players that I am not excited to see! Liz Cambage for sure because she was the boss at the last global event in 2018 at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup. The sight of her doing it all and at one point taking a brush and even cleaning up on the floor during a game was the ultimate basketball metaphor. Plus can you believe how much time flies. When she steps out in the Japanese capital, it will be nine years since that famous dunk in London. With such huge personality and skill, an unpredictable streak, an ability to be unstoppable and also divide opinions, she's box-office gold dust and I love her. Can you tell?

Sajjatam Kulsomboon: I guess it would be super easy to draw a comparison between China's Han Xu and Yao Ming and ride the excitement purely based on that, but that wouldn't be fair to the appeal that Han brings to the table just by herself. Her exceptional height is what stands out, but there's much more to her game that just being tall which is what you realize when you get to sit down and watch her play. She has a soft touch. She consistently displays good footwork. She can step out to drop a wet jumper every now and then. And she can simply delete shot attempts with her shot-block timing and discipline.

Han might not immediately dominate her competition at this point as she would still be only 21 years old by the time she is expected to make her Olympics debut next year, but it will be fun to see her showcase glimpses of what should be a very bright future. She also has a bright personality that you just can't help rooting for.

Which national team could outperform expectations and surprise us all?

Shona Thoburn: I think Japan is going to shock the basketball world. Home court advantage and a change in the Olympic format (which could benefit a team with a weaker bench) will see teams only having to play six games to reach the podium. Since coach Tom Hovasse has taken over, they have proven they can hang with anyone in the world especially if their outside shots are falling. They play a very fast paced style of basketball that is exciting to watch. My only worry is whether they have the inside presence to take them to the very top?

Paul Nilsen: After the FIBA Olympic Qualifying Tournaments I wrote a piece saying there were 8-9 contenders outside of USA who could roll deep. In terms of expectations, I don't sense a lot of people talking about the resurgence of China. Imagine the extra incentive they have of performing beyond expectations in the backyard of their arch rivals and neighbors? I think they are talented and their frontcourt is one of the most underrated in the global game with the likes of Xu Han and Yueru Li. Meanwhile Meng Li is an all-action diamond . They could be very dangerous and are really awkward to play against.

Sajjatam Kulsomboon: I'm enjoying the love that everyone is showing for the Asian teams... and I'm going to double down on this showering of affection. Specifically, there is just not enough buzz about China who have a well-rounded mix of proven veterans and rising stars across all positions. This might be because Japan commands the spotlight as the reigning FIBA Women's Asia Cup champions, but China's résumé in the past two years has been superb. They only lost to Japan by three points in the Asia Cup Final, they beat Australia in the Semi-Finals, and they beat Spain too at the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament.

Definitely nothing to scoff at.

On the other hand, who might find it tough to live up to the billing?

Shona Thoburn: This might be the year that we see Spain struggle. With the retirement of Marta Xargay and with their mainstay of players getting older and struggling with injuries the past couple years, it could be the end of a wonderful medal run at major events for Spain. That being said they have a coach (Lucas Mondelo) who knows how to win and get the best out of his players. We shall see. This might be a great example of me putting my foot in my mouth!

Paul Nilsen: It's hard to write off anybody and I think that Spain are looking vulnerable or at least against expectations and their super high standards. It is ridiculous to say anything against a nation with Lucas Mondelo at the helm because they always find a way. I admire them enormously. But the loss of the prematurely retired Marta Xargay can't be underestimated and all their great veterans are another year older. which could be an issue with them putting absolutely everything into the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2021 which they will co-host. They'll love to prove me wrong and the return of the brilliant Alba Torrens could keep them  on the podium. But I am really worried their frontcourt depth is wafer thin at the elite level. Thin like the ice I will be skating on when I next see the super Lucas Mondelo!

Sajjatam Kulsomboon: For the sake of throwing a curveball, I'm just going to drive everyone crazy by putting Team USA as my answer. This is (obviously) not to say that this will be the year Team USA doesn't win it all, but the sky-high expectation is why I'm putting them in this category. After winning a mind-blowing seven straight gold medals, the expectation will no longer be to only win a gold medal. It will be to completely annihilate all opponents that cross their paths and that's a pretty high ceiling to live up to.

With the level of basketball talent rising all over the world at a fast pace, it's not too farfetched to envision that some team will give Team USA a run for their money.

If you had to choose one bucket-getter, who would you predict to top the scoring charts?

Shona Thoburn: There is no better bucket-getter in the game at the moment than Liz Cambage from Australia - hands down!

Paul Nilsen: I would absolutely love a Japanese player to erupt because it would be so exciting for the home crowd (if they allowed to attend) but they play such a super team-orientated game. Then again, so do Belgium and Emma Meesseman is always up there in the scoring charts, along with Liz Cambage. But, I will go away from the usual suspects and flag up the scoring power of Jennifer O'Neill for Puerto Rico (assuming this is not a trick question and we are talking top of the points per game chart and not total points scored). She will have to cut loose and if she gets rolling, she could really show out for the underdogs.

Sajjatam Kulsomboon: I like making myself look smart, even if it means cheating a bit by making the obvious and popular pick that is Australia's Liz Cambage. She topped all scorers at Rio 2016. She topped all scorers at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in 2018. She's still in the middle of her peak at 29.

I'm not going to directly say I'm confident about this prediction, but I'm saying that if I had to pick between Liz Cambage or any other player in the Olympics to lead the competition in scoring... I'm still going with Cambage.

Who is your pick to lift the trophy in Tokyo when all is said and done? Bonus points may be available for those brave enough not to pick USA...

Shona Thoburn: My answer to this question could change when I see the groups announced, but for now, here it goes... USA are still the team to beat. Silver for Japan if the basketball gods are on their side. We could see them pulling off the kind of run France had in 2012! I think either Canada or France for the last podium step. This is a toss up for me, and pulls at my heartstrings. I think both teams have the talent and experience to medal in Tokyo. 

Paul Nilsen: I will take the bonus points and say that for the first time since 1992, it will not be USA. Come on, after everything the world has dealt with in in 2020, I seriously need to believe in a glorious fairytale right now for 2021. I am not anti-USA and it probably will be them of course - like 90 percent because they're such a massive favorite. Japanese gold would just be an amazing story and I am letting my heart rule my head as this is now a remote possibility after the ACL injuries sustained by Tokashiki and Motohashi - two of their leaders, who could now miss the event. The likes of Australia, France or even Canada or Belgium maybe have a shot. I think the latter might sneak bronze. Has that narrowed it down enough? But basically, if USA don't win it, I get the kudos. That's only fair - right? 

Sajjatam Kulsomboon: I'm greedy. If you give me a chance to get bonus points, I'm taking it even if I don't know what these points are for. Therefore, if I had to not pick Team USA to win it all, I might as well just pick the team that has given them some of the most trouble over the years and that's the Opals. They're a team with great chemistry that is well-coached by Sandy Brondello and is spearheaded by one of the most unstoppable scorers in women's basketball in Cambage.

I'm only picking Australia for the sake of the bonus points, so I'll have Team USA taking the silver and Spain trailing behind with the bronze.

FIBA