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February 2024
05/02/2024
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Preview: Who's got what it takes to escape the 'Group of Death'?

SOPRON (Hungary) - On paper there's very little to separate Canada, Hungary, Japan and Spain in Sopron which means this FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament is going to be a truly monumental battle.

Here's everything you need to know ahead of the action getting underway on Hungarian soil, while you can also check out the individual Team Profiles for: Canada, Hungary, Japan and Spain.

 

 


The Favorite: Spain

This could be controversial in itself of course, since Spain didn't even feature at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022 after missing out and also were pipped to FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2023 silverware last year by Belgium. However, their re-boot in the wake of a disappointing 2021 and their change of coach to Miguel Mendez feels like it is now ready to bear fruit.

Spain have a nice mix of experience, youth and dynamic players to utilize

Yes, it's going to be very, very tough and any team could finish top of the group because there could be potentially so many close games. But Spain have all the elements. They have that well-respected play-caller; they have experience with veteran heads like Alba Torrens, Laura Gil and Silvia Dominguez; they have dynamic players like Maria Conde and Queralt Casas - plus slightly younger stars establishing themselves now like Raquel Carerra and Maite Cazorla.

By bringing in Megan Gustafson into their roster, they have addressed the gap in their armory which was a soft center under the paint at both ends of the floor. So, with this in mind, we can maybe call Spain very slight favorites and yet the crazy nature of this 'Group of Death' means to not be shocked if they finish last either!

The Underdog: Hungary

Even with an important home advantage and with an ever-improving team, good coach and their best finish at a FIBA Women's EuroBasket in recent memory last year, you have to label Hungary as the underdogs. But, only just. They have a great chance to advance in this super-tough group if they play to their potential, stay composed and deal with the intensity of this rare walk on the global stage. 

Hungary have a strong team ethic and will need it in their arguable role as underdogs in Sopron

It feels like this is going to be a mental challenge as much as a basketball one. They can compete, that is absolutely certain and on paper there could be some very close games since Hungary have some excellent ballers all over the court. But overall, considering the pedigree that the other three nations have at the top level in recent years, Hungary simply have to accept this underdog label - and now turn it into a positive. 

Spain were Olympic runners-up at Rio 2016, Japan were Olympic runners-up at Tokyo 2020, while Canada made the Semi-Finals of the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022. 

The Pivotal Game: Hungary v Canada

This could be interesting because there are so many different considerations. You can argue that Canada might be a little under-cooked with several of their big-hitters not playing top-level club basketball this current season. Will that mean Kia Nurse and Natalie Achonwa for example will not be quite as sharp, or conversely, will they be more rested than everyone else and be an even bigger asset than normal?

Will Victor Lapena and his Canada team be able to capitalize on any Hungary first night nerves?

Hungary have the size to match up quite well with Canada who are likely to be the tallest and most physical under the basket, but while Achonwa and Kayla Alexander look to do their thing, the host nation have so many choices with Bernadett Hatar, Cyesha Goree, Dorka Juhasz and Virag Kiss. 

You can also throw into the mix the fact that it is on day one of the competition. Can Hungary catch Canada a little cold, or will Hungary suffer from opening night nerves? 

The Big Question: What Japan is going to turn up?

In the past three years, we have seen many different faces of Japan. From their almost indescribable brilliance in capturing that historic silver medal at the Tokyo Games, to their failure to even make the Quarter-Finals at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup 2022 and last year relinquishing their FIBA Women's Asia Cup title to fierce rivals, China. 

Can Japan recapture their stunning Olympic form from Tokyo 2020?

It feels like with Canada, Spain and Hungary, we more or less all know what we are going to get, perhaps only the debut of Megan Gustafson a question mark against Spain. But with Japan, they could be anywhere on the 'Tokyo to Sydney' scale. Will they be back to their vibrant best and killing teams with their energetic defense, ruthless play in transition, wonderful spacing and three-point shooting? Or, will they still be stuck in a low to middle gear, with that epic high gear they showed in the Japanese capital never to be seen again?

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