NEWCASTLE (Paul Nilsen's Women's Basketball Worldwide) - The draw for the Tokyo 2020 Women's Olympic Basketball Tournament has been made and I imagine that I was not the only one gasping with excitement as the groups were collated.

Here's my take on what could be an epic tournament from the moment the first ball is thrown up.

Group A

There's only one certainty in Group A. Korea being the underdogs by some distance and it could be a catastrophic failure of Serbia, Canada and Spain not to collect wins against the Asian nation. If Korea don't  finish in last place, it would be a surprise of epic proportions. They have good young talent in WNBA player Jisu Park and veteran Hyejin Park, but outside of that, they simply don't have the quality, depth or experience to trouble the three big-hitters they will play.

For me, this is the most balanced group, because in theory, you could argue that there is only the width of a cigarette paper between Serbia, Canada and Spain. In a series of games, if they were to happen right now, I would struggle to make anything other than 50-50 predictions.

Some people might think Serbia are slightly behind Canada and Spain. Maybe this is true when you analyze things clinically. But you have to remember, Serbia are a team that come alive in tournaments. They are streaky, they find momentum and they medalled in Rio four years ago. Betting against a Marina Maljkovic team and one led by Sonja Vasic in this kind of situation is dangerous.

I love the way they play and the personality they have to force things. over the line Jelena Brooks is still class, Tina Krajisnik is probably the most underappreciated center in EuroLeague Women, Aleksandra Crvendakic is a super winger, Nevena Jovanovic can turn a game with her shooting power and now they have the naturalized Yvonne Anderson to solve their playmaking problem. Don't tell me they are anything other than capable of topping this group if they hit top gear. Oh and I didn't even mention Ana Dabovic did I?

Meanwhile Canada are an efficient machine. All that matters is that they get to the Semi-Finals. I am tired of them falling short. They need to advance past the group and more than anything, stop this falling over at the Quarter-Finals stage. I love Natalie Achonwa, who has been tearing it up in EuroLeague Women this season. She will form a super frontcourt partnership with Nayo Raincock-Ekunwe, who is just a fantastic baller and about as solid as you will find in the international game.

But the question marks surround backcourt operations. Kia Nurse can be a game-winner at any point in time and a lot will depend on her, in terms of her decision-making and ability to impose herself on games. Ultimately, I think the fate of Canada will boil down to who is handling the ball and whether they can handle the heat in crunch time of these intense Olympic meetings. Will it be Miah-Marie Langlois and Nurse, or will Coach Thomaidis bring in a Shay Colley or Shaina Pellington for example - or lure Nirra Fields out of her premature retirement?

A lot has been said and written about Spain. It would appear that they have taken suggestions from the FIBA expert panel they might struggle with disdain. I am not surprised by this. In the very early experts panel, I said they might struggle. I think this draw makes it slightly easier for them to get rolling.

The calculations are that Spain are boosted by the return of Alba Torrens and the emergence of Maria Araujo. But they are weakened by the loss of Marta Xargay, their multiple veterans being a year older and most critical of all, the fact that they will arrive in the Japanese capital having poured all of their efforts into winning the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2021 on home soil. But of course, it's always potentially mad to back against Lucas Mondelo and if he gets to the Final in Tokyo, I think it will be the greatest of a long list of accomplishments. 

Clearly in reality, Group A is going to come down to a three-way competition. With the new format, the trio could all advance. There is absolutely no telling for me, who the favorite clearly is right now.

Group B

 This is the most straightforward group on paper, in my opinion. Yet bizarrely, it is also the one that I feel doesn't have a clear underdog (like is the case with Korea in Group A and Puerto Rico in Group C). Nigeria, of course, are less of a favorite than the other teams, but really need to be respected. They showed that both in the Qualifiers for Tokyo and also on their last global appearance at the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup.  If they avoid injuries, play smart and keep their spine in form, including Ezinne Kalu, Adaora Elonu, Victoria Macaulay and Evelyn Akhator, they will be a tough cookie.

USA will top the group, that is a given. No further explanation is needed than to list the names of Breanna Stewart, Diana Taurasi, Elena Delle Donne, A'Ja Wilson, Brittney Griner. Well, you know the rest.

With my tongue in cheek recently, I predicted that Japan could win it and give me a 2021 fairytale that is much needed amongst all the coronavirus misery.  But, with serious injuries likely to curtail the participation of star duo Ramu Tokashiki and Nako Motohashi, Japan may need a miracle to realize their full potential. Still, with the irrepressible Tom Hovasse at the helm and that up-tempo style of energetic and quick-tempo team-ball, they can't be ruled out. 

The absolute crunch game in this group and probably one of my two favorite games of the first phase to highlight and make sure everyone watches is Japan's clash against France.  The French team are loaded. I mean seriously loaded. If you can ignore Gabby Williams and not select her, you are stacked. I am so excited by the possibilities of France this year. They could and should win the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2021 and should push for the podium in Tokyo. They have a beautiful mix of youth and experience, have physicality in Helena Ciak, a game-winner in Marine Johannes, a legend in Sandrine Gruda, someone on fire in Alexia Chartereau and an amazing young talent like Iliana Rupert. Can France deal with Japan's quickness? It will be fascinating.

And actually, could France push USA hard? Maybe they can cause an upset early. The more you list the attributes of France, the more you realize this is their best roster in memory.

Group C

It will be a proud moment when Puerto Rico make history and step out for their first ever Olympics appearance. Initially I thought this was a big of a nightmare draw for the rookies, but on reflection, it is at least better than being in Group B with USA, Japan and France. Besides, whatever group Puerto Rico were places in, it was always going to represent a massive challenge. The primary aim will be to show their best face, stay competitive in the games for as long as possible and at least give themselves a shot at a tremendous upset.

They have a talented core in Jennifer O'Neill, Jazmon Gwathmey, Ali Gibson and Isalys Quinones, but much will come down to how much the supporting cast can contribute. Especially those who have little high level club competition in the previous 6-12 months.

Australia will be favorites to top the group, although maybe only slightly ahead of Belgium. The Opals have one of the best players in the world in Liz Cambage, someone I regularly label a 'tour de force' and ultimate 'box office'. I adore her game, her confidence and even her attitude. Sometimes that blows up, but tame it and you don't have the same exceptional talent. I am also excited by Bec Allen who operates nicely alongside their marquee star. Leilani Mitchell should pull the strings and with Cayla George, Ezi Magbegor and Marianna Tolo adding depth under the basket, they will be strong defensively.

But are Australia really the favorites? I would say co-favorites with Belgium. And, this is the other group game that I really can't wait for. The clash of styles as Belgium look to turn up the dial on their ever impressive ball movement. It's all about how the Cats cope mentally in Tokyo. Their confidence was punctured under pressure at the FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2019 when great expectations were applied to them. I think they are better for that disappointment and experience. They have a classy leader in Emma Meesseman, great experience in Kim Mestdagh, an elite playmaker in Julie Allemand and the big difference in the last 18 months or so is that the rest of the roster is really shining too. Players that don't get the limelight such as Jana Raman and Kyara Linskens for example. With young Billie Massey also pushing hard for inclusion, these are exciting times. I have got no concerns about the talent, just still that question mark over the mental toughness. We will see.

China will be the potential fly in the ointment in this group for sure. Awkward to play against and with one of the best frontcourts (or at least most effective) in the global game, they are a handful. If they get it right, they could make a deep run. Although this initial group maybe doesn't do them many favors. The towering Xu Han will being that amazing smile and amazing game too. She will be partnered with Yueru Li and Ting Shao. Meanwhile the do-it-all Meng Li was MVP at the FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament in Belgrade a year ago, which shows they have a driving force that will be difficult to lock down.

Yes, it promises to be a seriously awesome tournament in Tokyo and I can't wait. 

Paul Nilsen
FIBA

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