NEWCASTLE (Paul Nilsen's Women's Basketball Worldwide) - The draw for the 2016 FIBA Women's Olympic Qualifying Tournament (WOQT) seemed to serve up a relatively straightforward list of the five teams who will qualify for Rio 2016.

Well on paper at least. But as basketball is played on the hardwood and history tells us that tournaments rarely go according to script, I am feeling a little unnerved that it looks all too easy at this juncture to map out the competition with a series of neat little ticks.

But anyway, here goes.

Group A should see hosts France finish top of the pile, with Cuba second and New Zealand in third place. Group B should see Turkey finish top of the pile with Argentina in second and Cameroon in third place. Group C should see Belarus finish top of the pile, Korea in second and Nigeria in third. Group D should see Spain finish top of the pile, China in second and Venezuela in third.

That means France will go to Rio because they will subsequently beat Argentina, Turkey will go to Rio because they will beat Cuba, Spain will go to Rio because they will beat Korea and Belarus will go to Rio because they will beat China - ah, perhaps now things finally get a bit less clear.

But continuing with this initial box ticking, that means Argentina will play China and the latter will make it into the all-important fifth-place game for the last ticket. They will face Cuba, who will beat Korea. But either way, China win the last game.

So, the five teams going to Rio will be: France, Turkey, Belarus, Spain and China.

End of column?

Well not exactly, because like I said at the outset, it feels a little too neat and rather than me panicking about it being predictable, I am actually excited that just one or preferably two surprise results could really shake this thing up in a very big way.

It probably starts with the factor of whether any of the European teams will blow their glorious chance.

France have a lot of top level quality with Celine Dumerc, Endene Miyem, Isabelle Yacoubou and Sandrine Gruda who was huge in this tournament four years ago.

While home teams have cracked before, the dual experience of this competition in Anakara during 2012 and most significant of all hosting EuroBasket Women 2013 a year later has them as bankers for me.

Turkey are less of a certainty but also have some high calibre talent and the addition of powerhouse Lara Sanders means they can stand up to teams in the paint physically.

The headline names get mentioned in Isil Alben, Nevriye Yilmaz and Birsel Vardarli-Demirmen, yet other players have vast experience too in Bahar Caglar and Saziye Ivegin which dilutes the 'team in transition' issue.

Spain have a lot of class and if Sancho Lyttle is back, a defensive colossus. The only issue would be whether they could cope with an injury to one of their big three, who for me are Laia Palau, Alba Torrens and Lyttle.

Belarus are the most fragile. They finished below China at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship but then as Tom Maher pointed out to FIBA.com they do now have the naturalised playmaker Lindsey Harding - and she knows how to hand it out!

I give them an edge on China, because I feel that they have four top players in Harding, Katsiaryna Syntsina, Yelena Leuchanka and Anastasiya Verameyenka, but this is still the most vulnerable of all the European teams in the context of this draw.

Can I see Venezuela, Cameroon or Nigeria digging out a success? Not really, although Korea could be on a slide and Nigeria may be able to catch them out, while Argentina were dreadful at the Rio Test Event so maybe Cameroon can cause them some issues.

New Zealand are possibly the ones who could make an upset [of sorts] if Cuba are not fully stocked and ready to go during the initial phase.

The last two days will be riveting if they pan out the way that it looks.

Korea could beat Cuba of course if that is how it crumbles fixture-wise. They were well beaten at the 2014 FIBA Women's World Championship by Cuba though. However that was against a second string Korean team who had been focusing on taking gold at the Asian Games.

I can't see Argentina having enough to get past China, although it is obviously possible and a potential last game against China and Cuba could be really fascinating. Ting Shao and Yamara Amargo are two players I really love to watch play - and Cuba are always big value for the fans - full stop!

Both nations lost continental finals in a big way in 2015 and are under pressure for different reasons. It could actually be a real cracker if it boils down to those teams. China have such a brilliant Olympic record, while Cuba have not been there in 16 years.

Now there's only one thing left to do - to bookmark this column and when the dust settles I Nantes, see how I called it.

Paul Nilsen

FIBA

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