MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - It's time folks. The Olympic Games are about to begin in Rio and as I do every two years when a major tournament rolls around, I'm making some predictions.

Below are my top eight teams in the men's tournament, in order. It was no easy task given there are nine very high-quality outfits this year - and a couple more with potential for an upset - apologies to Croatian fans but I’m tipping them as the unlucky ones in Group B.

8 Argentina
One more go around for one of the greatest generations international basketball has seen. No team knows how to work clutch situations like Manu Ginobili and his merry crew, but can they slow their more athletic opponents long enough to reach those pressure moments?

If Ginobili and Carlos Delfino fire the offensive wing punch is deadly, while Luis Scola and Andres Nocioni are tricky match-ups for any frontcourt. Can that quartet draw enough defensive attention to allow their role players to shine consistently throughout the tournament? I suspect there will be good and bad nights in group play, leading to an early but fond farewell to some FIBA superstars.

Watch out for … Facundo Campazzo. He shot 40 per cent from range at last year's FIBA Americas Championship and 34 per cent in the ACB. If he can consistently hit then defending the big four become a different proposition, as does his all-world energy game.

7 Australia
This crew has been building since 2004 when Andrew Bogut and David Andersen manned the frontcourt. By 2008 Patty Mills and Joe Ingles had joined them, then Aron Baynes and Matthew Dellavedova joined the show in 2012. Now is their time to shine, particularly with the emergence of the sharp-shooting Ryan Broekhoff and Chris Goulding on the wings.

With Bogut and Mills in the line-up they are versatile team who can disrupt defensively in the full or half-court and score early or late in the shot clock. I expect Australia, France and Serbia will split the three games between them, but the Boomers tendency to leak points in bunches may cost them when it comes to points differential.

Watch out for … Kevin Lisch. The newly-naturalised Aussie was MVP and Best Defensive Player of the Aussie NBL last season, and he thrives on making the plays his team needs at both ends of the floor.


6 Serbia
The past two years Serbia have shown that under coach Sasha Djordjevic they are an elite team regardless of who takes the floor. With nine players returning from their 2014 FIBA Basketball World Cup team, expect similar team-first, high-octane offence that is incredibly hard to stop once rolling, especially with Milos Teodosic pulling the strings.

Without Boban Marjanovic, Nenad Krstic and Rasko Katic the Serbs lack a lbit of size, and that could make it hard to topple a team like France in a half-court battle, but with a more mobile frontcourt and the confidence Djordjevic injects into this team, they will be a tough quarter-final match-up for anyone.

Watch out for … Nikola Jokic. The past 12 months have been quite extraordinary for the 2.09m Jokic, and there is no better way to cap his year-long coming out party than showing off his incredible all-court game at the highest level.



5 Brazil
The USA and Soviet Union are the only two countries to win an Olympic men's basketball medal while playing host, showing what a tough ask it is. Australia came fourth in 2000, and this Brazilian team has many similarities to those Boomers, with a group of loyal veterans looking to sign off from national duty in style.

Brazil have a versatile team that can play at different speeds, strong defensive wings, great athleticism to control the boards and two point guards who can control the tempo in Marcelinho Huertas and Raul Neto. The questions are can they hit consistently from the arc and will the home crowd help overcome this group’s struggles in sudden-death matches? The answer is yes, but not all the way through.

Watch out for … Cristiano Felicio.  With Tiago Splitter and Anderson Varejao not in the team Nene Hilario is going to need some help inside, and after his strong finish to his rookie NBA season, Cristiano needs to bring his mix of athleticism and skill to his major tournament debut.


4 Lithuania
Linas Kleiza and Donatas Motiejunas may not be in Rio, but most of the crew from last year's Eurobasket silver medal squad is, meaning we will see a well-polished version of Lithuania’s proven style of play from opening tip, and that should help secure a high finish in Group B.

Jonas Valanciunas, Mantas Kalnietis and Jonas Maciulis will lead the way as usual, the role players will roll as they usually do, perhaps the medal X-factor comes from how much youngsters Domantas Sabonis and the sharpshooting Marius Grigonis can contribute?

Watch out for … Kalnietis. While his playmaking was back to its best at last year's Eurobasket, Lithuania won’t win an Olympic medal if he shoots under 35 per cent again, but any colour medal is possible if he fires from the field, as he did a fortnight ago against Spain.


3 France
The past five years have delivered Les Bleus third, third, first, sixth and second in world and European tournaments. This is a team in its prime ready to make up for their heartbreaking quarter-final loss to Spain four years ago, and for Tony Parker, Florent Pietrus, Boris Diaw and Mickael Gelabale this is probably their last chance at an Olympic medal.

The French have a great mix of experience, youth and experienced youth to succeed, particularly the energy of Rudy Gobert and Kim Tillie up front. There is no secret to what Vincent Collet's team does - it starts with defence and ends with disciplined team offence - expect them to be at the pointy end of some tense knockout clashes, they just have to land the right blows late in the game.

Watch out for … Nando De Colo. After a slow start to his international career, De Colo’s numbers have been almost criminal the past 12 months, shooting 62 per cent from two-point range and 43 per cent from the arc at last year’s Eurobasket, giving France a much-needed third wheel alongside Parker and Nicolas Batum.

2 Spain
The bridesmaids of Olympics past are back for another run at glory, fresh off their remarkable EuroBasket 2015, where they staved off near-elimination in the group stage by one point against Germany before dispatching powerhouses Greece, France and Lithuania to claim the title.

That ability to win when it matters is Spain’s trademark, so don’t be surprised by an inconsistent group stage, but when it comes to the knockout rounds a team featuring the class and experience of Pau Gasol, Juan-Carlos Navarro, Nikola Mirotic, Sergio Llull, Sergio Rodriguez, Rudy Fernandez, Ricky Rubio, Felipe Reyes and Jose Calderon will be incredibly tough to beat.

Watch out for … Navarro. La Bomba can't deliver in the quantity he used to, but the brilliance is still there, and at some point in the knockout rounds Spain will need him to deliver some back-breaking magic from long range to stave off elimination.


1 USA
Not much really needs to be said about the USA, their mix of camaraderie, athleticism, defence and elite scorers makes them almost impossible to beat. The scoring will mostly be done by Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony and Kyrie Irving this time around - who have each shot the USA to victory of their own hands - while DeAndre Jordan will keep the help defence honest at the rim.

The USA's half-court defence has been so good in recent years, teams have to play a fast pace to have a chance of posting a winning score, but with the athleticism in the red, white and blue that simply opens the back door for easy baskets and Coach Mike Krzyzewski's men are more than happy to waltz on through.

Watch out for … Irving. He headed to Spain 2014 with question marks next to his ability on the big stage, he left as the MVP of the world after torching Lithuania and Serbia for 44 points in the medal round. The level will go up in Rio, but after his performance in the NBA Finals, Kyrie might too.



Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

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