NEWCASTLE (Paul Nilsen's Women's Basketball Worldwide) – I am someone who holds my hands up when proved wrong and Turkey made me do this last year when I had predicted they would crash and burn at FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2017.

They didn't. Even if Greece gave them a bloody nose and exposed all of the weaknesses I had been worrying about, they recovered and punched a ticket to the FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup. Credit to Ekrem Memnun and his players where it is due.

To give some context, I fell in love with the story of Turkey's rise on the international scene. Birsel Vardarli Demirmen has been one of my all-time favorite players and I was honored to be there when they made the breakthrough with a first-ever Final at FIBA Women's EuroBasket 2011 in Poland. Two Olympic Games and another Women's EuroBasket podium later, they're now heading to a second FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup.

So, considering that Russia with all that young talent everyone talks about is not even going to Tenerife and neither are Olympic bronze medallists Serbia – or the Cecilia Zandalasini and Giorgia Sottana-inspired Italy, everything must be fine for Turkey. Right?

No, wrong.

Think of an iceberg analogy – and so-called global warming. The top part we all see is this Turkey team heading to Tenerife. It all looks beautiful and calm. But when you check more closely, I am convinced that there could be a huge problem lurking under the surface. That iceberg is also about to melt, break up and drift away from the women's basketball elite.

Why do I think this? Well, there are multiple issues which keep me awake at night.

Firstly, the number of Americans, naturalized Americans and Europeans who when combined, basically squeeze out domestic Turkish players and take up their salaries and court time. I absolutely love the Turkish League. For me, it is the best in Europe. But at what cost?

The lack of minutes for Turkish players is a joke. It is painful. There are some exceptions of course, but overall, I have seen so many careers that have been worryingly stop-start. Ayse Cora, Cansu Koksal, Pelin Bilgic and many more players who have the talent, but are not given a sustained run in the bigger teams to take their careers to the next step. People defend it by saying they are young and have time. Before they know it, this changes.

I am no expert on the inner workings of Turkish women's basketball, but to an observer like myself, there seems to be a competition between big clubs like Galatasaray and Fenerbahce to get the best young Turkish players. But, they rarely play them or let them discover their true potential. It's disappointing. It's worrying.

Another issue is what I have viewed in the past three or four years at youth level. I spend every summer at FIBA youth tournaments and the standard of Turkish teams has been poor. Maybe declining. It would now be a surprise to me if a Turkey team is pushing for the Quarter-Finals – let alone a FIBA U17 or FIBA U19 spot. As for a medal? Forget it.

There must be some fundamental problems in terms of culture of many Turkish girls, because they just don't look as physically or even as mentally strong as many other nations. But what incentive is there for young Turkish rising stars to work extra hard? They are only going to have a career sitting on the bench of a big Turkish team playing a handful of minutes. A fundamental change needs to be made across Turkey to change the mentality. Other countries are getting better from youth to senior level, it's time to go to work – more than ever before.

The third dimension is that Turkey have lost a European great in Nevriye Yilmaz. A legend. They are about to lose another in Vadarli Demirmen. These legendary players don't come off a conveyor belt. Isil Alben and a naturalized option can't do it alone.

The only option for the short to medium term is for Turkish players to have a bigger role in their own domestic league. If they can't do this at the big EuroLeague Women clubs, perhaps they need to be leaders somewhere else. Either at a lesser club team in their homeland, or is it time for Turkish players to demonstrate they are willing and ready to spread their wings and get experience outside of Turkey?

In the long-term, the issue with the physical conditioning of young girls coming through the pipeline needs to be addressed.

All of this hurts me and I am not Turkish. But I do love and respect Turkish women's basketball. Whatever you think of the above, it is difficult for me to write it – as someone who has been part of this journey.

When the curtain falls on the action in Tenerife, perhaps Turkey will surprise me again and prove me wrong. I just ask every person involved in Turkish Women's Basketball to think about when we will next see Turkey on the global stage. Tokyo 2020? The next FIBA Women's Basketball World Cup in 2022? The 2024 Olympics?

I think if we see Turkey at any of these big events, it will be a miracle. I would miss them very much after the last seven years of such excitement and joy.

Paul Nilsen

FIBA

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