11/04/2018
Enzo Flojo's Asia On My Mind
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Gauging the chances of Australia, China, New Zealand and Philippines at #FIBAU17 World Cup

MANILA (Enzo Flojo's Asia on My Mind) - Let's bring out the crystal ball, look at the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2018 and see how our four FIBA U16 Asia representatives will probably do.

I will look at each team - Australia, China, New Zealand and Philippines - and break each one down by discussing their respective strengths, weaknesses and group draw.

Australia
Strengths: The #FIBAU16Asia champions are big and deep. They don't have a 7-footer, but their wingmen have very good size for this age level. They also have a very deep team, and as they showed in last week's tournament, there isn't a noticeable dip in production or talent from their starters to their second unit.

Weaknesses: Australia didn't really struggle in any game in #FIBAU16Asia except in their matchup with Korea, where they shot a horrendous 34% from the field and turned the ball over 20 times. What they may struggle with in the #FIBAU17 World Cup, though, is when they face teams with really big frontlines. They initially had some trouble containing Kai Sotto and Jiao Boqiao in the early goings of their games against Philippines and China respectively, and of guys like Kobe Williamson and Paul Tsapatolis are ranged against even better centers in Argentina, that could spell trouble.

Draw: Australia are in Group A with Turkey (#4 in the world), Puerto Rico (#18 in the world), and Dominican Republic (#25 in the world). The tallest guys the Crocs will probably face are 6ft 9in (2.05m) Miguel Santos (PUR) and 6ft 8in (2.04m) Ismail Karabilen, with the latter being a good matchup for 6ft 7in (2.00m) Kobe Williamson. Omer Kucuk (TUR) and Andre Curbelo (PUR), meanwhile, should give Tamuri Wigness a challenge in the backcourt. At the end of the day, however, Australia should be the favored team to top this group.


China
Strengths: Size is a big factor, and, as always, China have a ton of it at nearly every position. The good thing about this team's makeup is they can opt to go either small ball or have a more traditional big man lineup on the floor. Flexibility - that's what they have going for them. Also, their guards are solid. Yang Ali, Chen Pengyudi and Sun Haoqin all take good care of the basketball as the team averaged just around 11 turnovers per game. That kinda makes up for their less-than-ideal field goal shooting percentage - just under 42%.

Weaknesses: The Chinese usually have very strong frontlines, but the one we saw at the #FIBAU16Asia may not hold up well at the world stage. Despite their size, China's bigs were inconsistent rebounders and inside scorers save for Aizimaiti Aizimaiti. Also, they were dead last among the Quarter-Finals teams when it cam to blocks per game with only 1.2 per contest. Against the elite centers and power forwards at #FIBAU17, China's frontcourt will have their work cut out for them.

Draw: China were drawn with African U16 champions Mali, who went 8-0 in their title run, European U16 third placers Serbia and defending World U16 champions USA. On paper, China are ranked higher than Mali, but even that may not be accurate when the hostilities begin in Group B. Team USA, of course, is expected to be dominant with all their other great rising stars. The Chinese bigs will surely have their hands full as well against Serbia's Aleksandar Langovic and Nemania Popovic, both of whom stand 6ft 8in (2.02m). The rubber match, though, will probably be against the Malians who boast of MVP guard Siriman Kanoute and hulking 6ft 10in (2.08m) center Oumar Ballo. If China cannot get past Mali, that's it for them.

New Zealand
Strengths: Outside shooting should be the Junior Tall Blacks' calling card in Argentina. They were second overall in three-point percentage in Foshan, and that will be a primary weapon of theirs at #FIBAU17. That means guys like Tom Cowie, Jaylin To'O, Marvin Williams-Dunn and even leading scorer Mitch Dance have to make their perimeter shots to enable their inside operators to carve space around the basket.

Weaknesses: Size will probably be New Zealand's main downfall at the world level. This is their debut at the #FiBAU17 World Cup, and they have no prior experience when it comes to squaring off against much bigger and more talented foes. Still, guys like Shalom Broughton and Jake McKinlay accounted well for themselves against the Philippines' Kai Sotto, so that should be good practice. New Zealand were still among the worst rebounding teams in #FIBAU16Asia, though, and that's surely something they will need to address before flying out to Argentina.

Draw: New Zealand are quite fortunate that Group C is the only set without any continental champions. Canada, Egypt and Montenegro were all second placers in their respective sub-zones. That's not to say this is an easy group, of course, because there really is no such thing. In reality, New Zealand are still in the bottom half of this group when it comes to world ranking and maybe dead least when it comes to size and talent. If they have a good shooting performance, however, and they catch any of the other teams on an off-day, anything can happen.

Philippines
Strengths: This is a strange thing to say, but size will be the Filipinos' biggest asset in this tournament. 7ft 1in (2.16m) Kai Sotto, as he did in #FIBAU16Asia, will probably dwarf any other player at #FIBAU17, but at the same time, he should expect that all the other team's big guys will be raring to take their shots at him. With him and 6ft 7in (2.00m) Raven Cortez teaming up inside, though, the Philippines should still be a formidable rebounding and rim-protecting force just as they were in Foshan.

Weaknesses: The Philippines' offense is plainly offensive, if that's even possible. The Filipinos ranked dead last among #FIBAU16Asia Quarter-Finals teams in every scoring and shooting category, and that is definitely a bad sign heading into the #FIBAU17 World Cup. More often than not, the Philippines' offense has been predictable at best and stagnant at worst. They had one of the worst assist-to-turnover ratios in #FIBAU16Asia - practically 3 assists for every 5 turnovers - and that just won't cut it at the next level.

Draw: One may argue Group D is the Group of Death. European champions France, hosts Argentina and always dangerous Croatia are all bunched up in the top 10 of the world rankings, while the Philippines are way below at #31. And, realistically speaking, even with Kai Sotto manning the middle, the Philippines will be the least favored to advance. His once-in-a-generation presence will make the team always worthy of attention - some NBA or Euro scouts may even turn their heads - but he cannot lift the Philippines into the next round all by his lonesome.

Enzo Flojo

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Enzo Flojo

Enzo Flojo

Enzo Flojo, one of Manila’s top basketball bloggers, always has Asian basketball on his mind. His biggest basketball dream? To see an Asian team as a legitimate gold medal contender in world basketball. He believes it will happen in his lifetime. If you have big basketball dreams like he does, then you’re in the right place.