Paulo-Kennedy-Column
26/09/2014
Paulo Kennedy's view from Downunder
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Drawing a new plan

MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - OK, so hand up whoever it is at Basketball Australia kicking black cats, walking under ladders, smashing mirrors and all that jazz.

Losing Patty Mills for the FIBA Basketball World Cup seemed like a body blow - and ultimately was - but it pales in comparison to the Opals being cruelly stripped of Liz Cambage and Lauren Jackson.

For a team that has long built its identity around high-quality bigs, this loss - particularly the last-minute injury to Cambage - seems like a dagger to the heart too deep to overcome.

But the light at the end of the tunnel is the fact this Australian team has a new style. Coach Brendan Joyce has been preaching defence, intensity, team contributions and at the right times, speed.

So as the Opals' new identity comes under the glare of a major tournament for the first time, they have the pieces to adjust on the run, so to speak.

Whether they can do that quick enough to claim yet another medal we will have to wait and see.

If Joyce can change the plan enough to cover for the change of balance in his team, while keeping it close enough to what his players are comfortable with, it will go down as one of the great coaching performances.

It may seem unlikely, but their performances against the USA and France certainly tell us there is life and hope.

Two key late additions
While two mainstays are now gone, two quality players return in Penny Taylor and Erin Phillips, direct from WNBA success.

Both players have produced some quality performances since joining the team, but of concern to the coaching staff must be their two stars' low percentages from the field - combining for 11-of-39 against China and the USA.

No question there is an element of getting used to the team, the style and the international game, so it is hardly panic stations, but in big games the Opals will need Taylor and Phillips finishing the opportunities they create.

The challenge for Joyce is how to use these players who have just come off an intense season.

This is especially true for Taylor, who at 33 years of age benefitted greatly from her well-managed minutes at Phoenix, with the Mercury also sharing the profits of that approach.

Taylor played 32 minutes against China, but just a total of 30 against the USA and France.

It will be interesting to see what her role is come Saturday, I suspect quality over quantity will deliver the best returns once the bright lights come on.

Drawing on the different fixtures
There was much discussion at Spain 2014 about the design of the draw, which guaranteed the hosts and the USA would not meet until the Final.

Of course, as we all know, they didn't meet at all - you know what they say about the best-laid plans!

But as for the theory of it, the more people I spoke to at Spain 2014 the more acceptance there was of such a format, similar to a tennis championship.

At Turkey 2014 we see a different approach, with the dominant USA and number two ranked Australia positioned on the same side of the draw.

With world number three Russia not present at this tournament it seems like a strange arrangement, but no doubt the Opals have put it behind them. Perhaps with Cambage and Jackson now missing it may prove prophetic.

Hopefully, after the different draws we have seen this year, the strengths and weaknesses of each will result in a consistent approach from here on.

Answers emerge
One part of the FIBA World Championship for Women draw I like is the playoff between second and third in each group to decide who advances to the Quarter-Finals.

When asked about the Australia-Angola controversy at Spain 2014, FIBA Secretary General Patrick Baumann said he didn't believe there were changes to the draw that could be made to prevent the long-running practice of jockeying for pool position.

While that seems true in the current format, I think with the stated intention of increasing the FIBA Basketball World Cup to 32 teams from 2019, the answer is emerging from the Turkey 2014 draw.

Eight groups of four, first team goes through to the Round of 16, second and third play off for the remaining spots. Anyone playing for position would be taking a big risk.

With multiple groups coming together for the knockout rounds, there is also the option of a blind draw of crossover match-ups.

There will be five years to plan, and I think the tanking issue can be largely put to bed if the planning is done right.

Knockout idea
Baumann also responded to a question about 5-8 playoff games by pointing to the lack of meaning they carry, and the complaints from countries who didn't want to play them.

This became obvious at the 2010 tournament and FIBA was right to banish them.

However, with the FIBA Basketball World Cup set to become the main Olympic qualifier from 2019 onwards, these games could become crucial if more than four teams progress, as expected.

That would certainly add an exciting new dimension to the World Cup, with vanquished quarter-finalists having back up and put their best foot forward in order to win passage to the world's biggest sporting event.

FIBA's new calendar, and all involved with it, continues to throw up new possibilities.

Who knows what will emerge on the women’s side. Hopefully in Turkey, it is this resilient, new-look Opals team.

Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo has joined our team of columnists with a weekly column called 'The View from Downunder', where he looks at pertinent issues in the world of basketball from an Oceania perspective, perhaps different to the predominant points of view from columnists in North America and Europe.