10 Deandre Edoneille Ayton (BAH)
01/02/2018
David Hein's Eye on the Future
to read

Ayton over Bagley, Doncic: Debate rages on No. 1 pick of 2018 NBA Draft

REGENSBURG (David Hein's Eye on the Future) - Most NBA Draft gurus can agree on the top seven picks in the 2018 Draft, but the debate on who will be picked number one overall on June 21 continues to rage on.

As the calendar switches to February, that means there are only about eight weeks left of college basketball and the best chance for most draft prospects to leave a lasting impression on NBA teams.

Going into the final month before March Madness tips off, the two biggest risers in the mock drafts across the internet are big man Mohamed Bamba of Texas and Oklahoma point guard Trae Young. But neither have climbed atop any of the mock drafts so far.

Taking a look at five of the leading mocks for June's draft - ESPN/formerly DraftExpress, nbadraft.net, CBS, SBnation and 247sports.com - a couple things are clear. First off, there's nearly complete agreement on the top seven players who will be picked (here in alphabetical order): Deandre Ayton, Marvin Bagley III, Bamba, Luka Doncic, Jaren Jackson Jr., Michael Porter Jr. and Young. Only CBS varies in that grouping with Collin Sexton taking the seventh spot and Jackson down at 11th.

Three of the players are projected in the number one spot: ESPN and SBnation with Doncic; nbadraft.net and 247sports with Ayton; with CBS picking Bagley. If you break down the rankings among the five outlets, Ayton actually gets the highest average at 1.8 while Bagley is second at 2.4 and Doncic third at 2.8 - due to nbadraft.net having the Slovenian youngster at sixth overall. Bamba is fourth on average at 4.4, followed by Porter at 4.8, Young at 6.0 and Jackson at 6.4.

Let's look at the seven players - in the average draft order.

Deandre Ayton

The Bahamas native Ayton has been a physical beast at Arizona, averaging 19.7 points, 10.7 rebounds, 1.8 blocks and 1.4 assists. His top game came against Alabama as he collected 29 points on 12 of 18 shots and 18 rebounds. His numbers have slightly dipped in the last eight games, five times not grabbing double digit rebounds despite averaging at least 30 minutes in those contests. Ayton has already played internationally, lining up for the Bahamas senior national team at the FIBA Centrobasket Championship 2016, averaging 16.0 points, 11.0 rebounds and 3.5 blocks.

Marvin Bagley III

Bagley is showing his versatility with Duke and averaging 21.5 points, 11.4 rebounds, 1.5 assists, 1.1 blocks and 1.0 steals while shooting 60 percent from the field. His numbers have been eye-popping at times this season, especially in big games. In the six games against Texas, Florida, Florida State, NC State, Wake Forest and Virginia, Bagley averaged 31.2 points and 14.3 rebounds while shooting 64 percent from the field and playing 38.7 minutes. His biggest showing was 32 points and 21 rebounds against Florida State.

Luka Doncic

The Real Madrid maestro has been magical all season. He has taken over full leadership of the team and is a serious contender for the MVP of the EuroLeague, where he is averaging 17.3 points, 5.4 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 1.2 steals while hitting 35 percent of his three-pointers. In the Spanish league, Doncic is collecting 14.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.6 assists and 0.9 steals. Doncic's crowning game this season saw him pour in 30 points to go with 10 assists, eight rebounds and two steals against Fenerbahce Istanbul. Oh, and Doncic will only turn 19 years old on February 28 having already gained a spot on the All-Tournament Team of FIBA EuroBasket 2017 as champion.

Mohamed Bamba

After a so-so start to the season, Bamba has really been coming on since about Christmas time. The big man, who helped lead USA to the crown at the FIBA U18 Americas Championship 2016, is averaging 13.0 points, 10.9 rebounds and 4.5 blocks for Texas. But in his last 11 games, those numbers have jumped to 15.5 points, 11.9 rebounds and 4.8 blocks, including an outing against Mississippi with 25 points, 15 rebounds and four blocks with 12 of 13 free throws.

Michael Porter Jr

This might be one of the most fascinating personalities in draft history. That is because Porter's entire draft stock very well may come essentially without ever playing the season leading up to the draft. Porter, who also was on the USA U18 2016 team, was expected to star at Missouri and had strong chances of being the number one pick. But a back injury in his first game of the season limited him to two points and two rebounds in two minutes. And he is not expected to play the rest of the season.

Trae Young

Speaking of wow numbers … Young is averaging 30.3 points, 9.5 assists, 4.1 rebounds and 1.9 steals while shooting 41 percent from three-point range. One issue some observers have is his turnovers - 5.3 per game. Sure he had 21 turnovers in a two-game stretch, but Young, who was a teammate of Bamba and Porter on the 2016 U18 USA team, has the ball in his hands at all times. Among his highlights are a 26-point, 22-assist bombshell against Northwestern State not to mention 39 points and 14 assists against Texas Christian and three games of over 40 points, including 48 points and eight assists against in-state rivals Oklahoma State. In the other TCU showdown, Young made 10 of 18 three-pointers in collecting 43 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists.

Jaren Jackson Jr.

For what it's worth, Jackson's numbers are the least impressive of the bunch at 11.4 points, 6.3 rebounds and 1.2 assists. But Jackson, who won the FIBA U17 Basketball World Cup 2016 for United States, is shooting 44 percent from three-point range as a 6ft 11in (2.11m) forward while also blocking 3.4 shots a game. His top showing was 21 points, 11 rebounds and six blocks against Illinois.

There are still eight weeks and the draft camps for players to move up - or down. But it seems like the top seven are more or less set - in whatever order.

David Hein

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

David Hein

David Hein

Walk into the media tribune of any major basketball event and there's a good chance you will come across David Hein. Having covered dozens of FIBA events, including numerous women's and youth events, there are few players Dave doesn't know about, and few players who don't know him. His sporting curiosity means he is always looking to unearth something new and a little bit special. David Hein's Eye on the Future is a weekly column digging out the freshest basketball talent worldwide and assessing what the basketball landscape will look like a couple of years down the line.