Paulo-Kennedy-Column
11/07/2014
Paulo Kennedy's view from Downunder
to read

Do New Zealand have the answers?

MELBOURNE (Paulo Kennedy's View from Downunder) - The Tall Blacks were in camp this week ahead of next week's home series against Korea as both teams prepare for the FIBA Basketball World Cup.

There's palpable excitement about the team's prospects amongst the New Zealand basketball community, but do Nenad Vucinic's men have the answers to some key questions?

Is Steve Adams' withdrawal a fatal blow?
A couple of years ago, I was chatting to coach Vucinic about the new breed of tall players coming through, and his response was typically thought provoking.

"We are certainly getting some size for the future, but in a lot of ways being 'undersized' was one of our advantages against certain types of teams," he said.

While everyone in New Zealand is disappointed Adams won't play, for the Tall Blacks it will just be business as usual with Alex Pledger as their one true big man.

They will test their opponents with their high movement offences that often leave the likes of Casey Frank, BJ Anthony and Rob Loe open to connect from range.

The reality is Adams would have been a plus-minus proposition. The undoubted positives would have come from his size, athleticism and hustle, but negatives would have arisen from his lack of polish and experience in the international game.

As it is, Vucinic will have a versatile core of big men who know his system inside-out, even if it is lacking a little in size.

Is C-Web a point guard?
Last international season, Corey Webster showed how dangerous he could be in the two-spot, running the patterns Kirk Penney and Phill Jones have benefitted so much from over the years.

But with Kirk back in town, those opportunities will diminish, and while having such a dangerous player coming off screens while the star rests is a luxury, the Tall Blacks need to get more out of Webster.

The past two years, Corey has played back-up point guard for the New Zealand Breakers, and under Shane Heal's watch spent time honing that side of his game for the Wellington Saints this NZ NBL season.

While his point guard instincts are still a work in progress, he is outstanding in the ball-screen situation at both ends.

Provided he can initiate the offence then get it back later in the clock to use the ball-screen, he will give Vucinic a luxury he has never had - a genuine scoring threat from the one-spot who gives a different look to Lindsay Tait.

Who's helping Tommy in the three-spot?
The situation involving young star Reuben Te Rangi and the law really is unfortunate for everyone involved. One of the less serious ramifications is the Tall Blacks lacking a back-up small forward, but that's the one I have to consider here.

While Tom Abercrombie appears ready to play a massive role in Spain, Te Rangi and Leon Henry's legal situation means there is no obvious candidate behind him.

There is little doubt Webster and Penney will spend some time together on the wings, but that time probably will be limited by New Zealand's lack of guard depth.

This is where I would like to see Mika Vukona spend some more time at small forward. It's not just that he has the speed and mobility to play that position, but the Tall Blacks have the line-ups to put around him.

With shooters Penney and Webster able to man the guard spots, and frontcourt shooters like Frank, Loe and Anthony able to spread the floor, I pity any three-man who is trying to defend Vukona solo down low.

Given Vucinic will likely have five players deserving of minutes in the four and five positions, this is also one way to ensure the better players are on the floor longer.

Can Vucinic get too clever by half?
Vucinic is very clever, and he can sometimes get too clever, like putting out a line-up that counters his opposition defensively but leaves the Tall Blacks unable to score.

In reality though, Vucinic wins many more tactical battles than he loses, so no one should be concerned about the in-game leadership.

The challenge this World Cup is picking a team that almost picks itself, resisting the temptation to go for too many "smokies".

Vucinic has a great track record of promoting youth for the long-term benefit of the program, and he has said there will be youth in this year's squad.

But if you look at Tai Webster and Isaac Fotu, they have been in the program for some time yet will still be in their 20s at the 2023 World Cup, as will Te Rangi. Loe will be 32.

Abercrombie, Pledger, Anthony and Corey Webster may seem like veterans, but they are all in their mid-20s and will still be close to their prime come the 2019 World Cup if all goes well injury-wise.

Then there are four veterans - Penney, Frank, Vukona and Tait - who have long been the leaders of this squad and will play a crucial role guiding their young teammates.

For me, these 11 players are 'must picks' if fit. They are talented, experienced internationally and embody three distinct generations which show the future is in good hands.

Who's the last one?
Of course, that leaves one spot remaining.

Will it be the enormously improved Duane Bailey who brings toughness and rebounding to the small forward spot, but is fighting time to recover from a knee injury?

Will versatile guard Everard Bartlett's outstanding NZ NBL season redeem himself after falling well down the Tall Blacks' rotation in 2013? He solves some backcourt depth issues, so expect him to be given plenty of rope against Korea.

You also can't count out defensive workhorse Jarrod Kenny, or one of Vucinic's trademark young smokies in Jack Salt, Tai Wynyard or Tohi Smith-Milner.

The is talent there, so the big question now is how many of these tough line-ball Group C games can New Zealand win in Bilbao?

Paulo Kennedy

FIBA

FIBA's columnists write on a wide range of topics relating to basketball that are of interest to them. The opinions they express are their own and in no way reflect those of FIBA.

FIBA takes no responsibility and gives no guarantees, warranties or representations, implied or otherwise, for the content or accuracy of the content and opinion expressed in the above article.

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo Kennedy

Paulo has joined our team of columnists with a weekly column called 'The View from Downunder', where he looks at pertinent issues in the world of basketball from an Oceania perspective, perhaps different to the predominant points of view from columnists in North America and Europe.