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20 November, 2017
26 February, 2019
18/02/2019
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Which teams have best chances of clinching Europe's last five World Cup berths?

MUNICH (Germany) - The moment of truth is just around the corner in the FIBA Basketball World Cup 2019 European Qualifiers, with the hopes of a dozen qualification hopefuls now resting on the high-stakes February window.

As we enter the last stage of the Qualifiers, 12 teams are still in the running for five available berths to join the seven already qualified European nations (Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Lithuania, Spain and Turkey) bound for the biggest FIBA World Cup to date.

For some, the coveted tickets to China are within arm's reach. For others, the margin of error is long gone and every next misstep could prove to be their last. With the help of our expert writers, we examine the situation in each of the four groups.

WHAT DO THE EXPERTS THINK?

GROUP I

Qualified: Spain, Turkey

 

Can still qualify:

Montenegro would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but one could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breakers against Latvia, Ukraine and Turkey, though the latter might not necessarily come into play.

Latvia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but a win against Montenegro could suffice depending on other results if they win the tie-breaker against Montenegro. Depending on other results, Latvia can also tie with Montenegro and Turkey for 2nd, 3rd and 4th spot and qualify if they win against Montenegro by 9 points.

Ukraine would clinch a spot in the World Cup if they win both of their games and capture the tie-breaker against Montenegro, providing that Latvia also lose both of their games and Turkey win at least one of theirs.

Can no longer qualify: Slovenia

 

GROUP J

Qualified: Lithuania

 

Can still qualify:

Italy would secure a spot in the World Cup with a win in either of their two remaining fixtures, but even two defeats could suffice as long as they either win the tie-breaker against Hungary or Hungary lose to Croatia. They could also qualify with a three way tie with Hungary and Poland at 19 points each.

Poland would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but could qualify even with one or no wins in the final window, depending on other results. If they lose once, there is a small chance of an unfavorable three-way tie with Italy and Hungary (if Italy lose twice and Hungary win twice, beating Italy by exactly 9 points in a high-scoring with at least 117 points). If they lose twice, they could be overtaken by Hungary or Croatia if either of them win twice, also depending on the tie-breaker in the scenario with Croatia.

Hungary have to win twice to have a chance of securing a spot in the World Cup, but would still be dependent on other results. If Italy and Poland both win at least once each, Hungary would also be eliminated. Alternatively if Italy's win is against Lithuania instead of Croatia, Hungary qualifies in this scenario.

Croatia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins but only if Poland lose to Netherlands and either Croatia win the tie-breaker against Poland or Hungary beat Italy.

Can no longer qualify: Netherlands

 

GROUP K

Qualified: France, Czech Republic

 

Can still qualify:

Russia can still qualify in several ways. They would secure a spot with a win against Finland, but could also go through with a win against Bulgaria depending on other results if:
a) they win the tie-breaker against Finland and Finland lose to France;
b) Finland beat France and Czech Republic lose both of their games.
Russia can also qualify with 2 losses as long as they win tie breaker against Finland (Russia won by +2pts), and Finland lose to France and Bulgaria lose to Bosnia and Herzegovina.

Finland would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins if they win the tie-breaker against Russia but a win against Russia alone could suffice, depending on other results. If Russia lose to Bulgaria, Finland would qualify with a win as long as they hold the tie-breaker over Russia. If Bulgaria win both of their games, Finland would qualify with any win against Russia.

Can no longer qualify: Bulgaria, Bosnia and Herzegovina

 

GROUP L

Qualified: Greece, Germany

 

Can still qualify:

Serbia would secure a spot in the World Cup with any win but could qualify with two defeats if Georgia and Israel suffer at least one loss each. Serbia must not lose by more than 21 points against Israel if they are to avoid elimination in a possible three-way tie scenario with Georgia and Israel at 6-6.

Georgia would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins, but only if Serbia lose twice.

Israel would secure a spot in the World Cup with two wins if Serbia and Georgia both lose twice. If Serbia lose twice and Georgia win once, Israel would have to beat Serbia by 22 points or more to qualify.

Can no longer qualify: Estonia

 

FIBA